Ominous numbers for the future of Georgia GOP

Take a look at this, drawn from the crosstabs of the recent SurveyUSA poll of Georgia’s U.S. Senate race:

agepoll

As you can see, the gender gap is quite real: Perdue has an 11-point advantage among men; Nunn has a nine-point advantage among women. But take a look at the age breakdowns, and in particular the two far right columns. Among voters 49 and younger, Democrat Michelle Nunn has a nine-point advantage over Republican David Perdue. Among those 50 and older, Perdue has an 11-point margin.

If you’re a GOP strategist in this state, those numbers have to alarm you about the future. (SurveyUSA numbers are similar in the governor’s race between Nathan Deal and Jason Carter.)

The AJC’s poll taken earlier this month found that same stark divide by age group. For example, voters were asked whether they considered themselves liberal, moderate or conservative:

                                18-39      40-64     65+

Liberal                      40%         18        16

Moderate                  27%         25        20

Conservative            28%         55         60

Younger Georgians are a LOT more liberal than their parents and grandparents, and a LOT less conservative. And when asked what party they belong to or at least lean toward, they said:

                                18-39      40-64     65+

Democratic               57%         43        31

Republican               32%         47        59

Independent              8%            6         7

That’s a 25-point advantage among voters 39 and younger, which is large even by national standards. (In 2012, Obama won the under-30 vote by 23 points.) And contrary to folk wisdom on the subject (as well as Winston Churchill), that isn’t likely to change much. Research consistently shows that the political identification that you establish in your younger years remains stable as you age. As a 2002 study found, “individuals form partisan attachments early in adulthood and … these political identities, much like religious identities, tend to persist or change only slowly over time.”

The Pew Research Center reports similar trends, finding for example that young people who came of age during the Reagan years tended to vote Republican back then and still do today, 30 years later, while those who came of age during the Clinton years tended to vote Democratic initially and still do today. And although I can’t cite research to support me, I suspect that given the increasingly tribal nature of American politics, people today are even less likely than in the past to switch loyalties. For people of all persuasions, that has become just short of an act of treason to your class. I don’t think that’s healthy, but it’s true.

The age breakdowns cited above also help to explain why Republican candidates have such a hard time trying to adapt to changing attitudes and conditions. They have become so heavily reliant on support from older voters that they don’t dare to risk that support by, say, supporting the right of gay people to get married or supporting legalization of undocumented immigrants.

As a result, their problems among young voters get worse and worse, and their senior citizen base gets smaller and smaller.

Reader Comments 0

267 comments
woodscritter
woodscritter

Awww, Jay, that's nuthin' a few hundred million dollars worth of Koch snorting won't cure...

Mr_Snarky
Mr_Snarky

Root cause: Young people move to the vibrant, diverse cities...older people are stuck in the dying, white rural areas.

Wascatlady
Wascatlady

I can tell you those of us retiring right now have sure been screwed.  No way I will vote for a Republican as long as they hold their current "positions."

Wascatlady
Wascatlady

Unfortunately many of todays 20s and 30s will never have much, since the Republicans wrecked the economy and have sabotaged the recovery in every way possible.  I imagine they will remember this!

jayshurtfeelings
jayshurtfeelings

Perhaps withholder can concentrate on taking law abiding citizens guns now?


You people...

jayshurtfeelings
jayshurtfeelings

Did you loons notice how few white votes none and little jason get. Why is that? Why can't dems appeal to white folks?


You people...

jayshurtfeelings
jayshurtfeelings

Its just hilarious that you pathetic fruits hold out hope because of a tv poll... LOL..


You ignorant people...

jayshurtfeelings
jayshurtfeelings

So jay your holding out faith even though I think deep down you realize a bloodbath is coming in November. I suppose you and those idiot followers of yours think this means something even if it is true. Think about it sport. Young folks are like the saying. Young and dumb. When they get older and enter the real world and start a family they turn toward the party that supports normal families who pay taxes...


You people...

CommonSenseisntCommon
CommonSenseisntCommon

@stevedollar2013

When they get older and enter the real world and start a family they turn toward the party that supports normal families who pay taxes...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Yep, any party that isn't conservative

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@stevedollar2013 and just so it's clear, this "bloodbath" -- a Gooper senate takover -- you refer to has been a statistical probability expected for years.


And at the moment your chances are but a coin-flip, which is to say your leaders suck horribly at their jerbs.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

Posting this one. more. time. because some people are kind of thick.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/partisan-loyalty-begins-at-age-18/


"voters stay with the party they identify with at age 18, developing an attachment that is likely to persist — and to shape how they see politics down the road."

If you've a problem with that^^ assessment, backed up by carefully analyzed polling data, take it up with Nate and his mighty army of stat-nerds.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@ErwinsCat @stands_for_decibels Actually yeah--you prolly know that Nate cut his teeth on el beisbol...

gotalife
gotalife

They seek purity like isis just a different religion with less violence. They gave up the spending fight way too easily and cower way to easily over a religion. Their ideology has been proven a epic failure.

ErwinsCat
ErwinsCat

@gotalife 

you could make parallels (grossly on a different scale) of the ISIS to the TP within the GOP

RobertBrooks
RobertBrooks

@gotalife @ErwinsCat They won? Yeah right. They have swung so far right they have ensured no possibility of a presidential election for a very long time. Is that a victory to you? 

KUTGF
KUTGF

Seems a lot of our GOPpers want to pin their hopes on the young liberals turning into "conservatives"........ forgetting that even if true for a percentage, what the GOP is pushing these days is radicalism not conservatism. 

Doggone_GA
Doggone_GA

@KUTGF And they SURE don't want to consider the opposite: that there's just as much chance that young conservatives could get more liberal as they get older.

gotalife
gotalife

I prefer to live in the real world where facts and reality still matter. I don't think our wealthy need any American's help because they are richer than ever. I don't want another gilded age and think we should spread the wealth like this:


In Landmark Settlement, U.S. To Pay Native American Tribe $554 Million

Also reparations for slavery and prisoners of the failed war on weed. 
Also raise the min wage now.

Astropig
Astropig

Yeah, the Republican future is so dim that the two top Democrat candidates are trying to look like Republicans to try to get elected.


If 130 years out of power didn't kill the Republicans, I doubt one or two election cycles will. And when younger voters finally rebel against the steady hum of political correctness that divides and embitters them against one another,they'll drop the Democrats like a bad habit.I wouldn't write the obit just now.

Kamchak
Kamchak

@Astropig 

And when younger voters finally rebel against the steady hum of political correctness that divides and embitters them against one another,they'll drop the Democrats like a bad habit.

Got proof?

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Astropig "when younger voters finally rebel against the steady hum of political correctness"

another guy who didn't read the whole post.

CommonSenseisntCommon
CommonSenseisntCommon

@Astropig They are trying to look like moderates unlike Perdue and Deal who keep doubling down on the conservative platform.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Astropig ...I'm starting to think that in order to post a comment, you should have to be able to pass a short, multiple-choice quiz to prove that you actually read and understood the flippin' thing.

KUTGF
KUTGF

@CommonSenseisntCommon @Astropig  Of course, when you keep going right to the radical it makes "moderate" a relative term that makes former "moderates" look very left.  Its why former GOP positions are now radical DEM positions when you talk to the radical right

Astropig
Astropig

@stands_for_decibels @Astropig


You sound like my idiot teacher in high school in 1980. She assured me that Ronald Reagan didn't stand a chance against Jimmy Carter because Reagan was wrong about everything.She died on a teachers pension and Ronald Reagan won two landslides.


The young will eventually rebel. Let that keep you awake at night.

LeninTime
LeninTime

@Astropig @stands_for_decibels


What'a a liberal sphincter?


And don't tell me to look in the dictionary.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Kamchak @Astropig oh, you know. His "idiot high school teacher" situation. Proof!


(what're the odds he'll haul out the Churchill "quote" before this is done?)

Kamchak
Kamchak

@stands_for_decibels 

You miss being able to post this charming stuff over at Kyle's, don't you?

These are the regulars at Galloway's.

Astropig
Astropig

@Kamchak @Astropig


Got proof?


Well, you, for instance. You're obviously rebelling against parents that tried to teach you to be polite and intelligent.


There's your proof.


Just sayin'

Kamchak
Kamchak

@Astropig

Well, you, for instance.

No, I am the opposite of your assertion.

I began as a staunch conservative and became liberal long after my rebellious phase.

Kamchak
Kamchak

@Astropig 

So you agree that kids will rebel?

No.

Perhaps you should respond to what I actually post rather than respond to the $h*t you merely make up and wish I had posted.

Just suggestin'.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Astropig @Kamchak Voting Gooper in 2014 isn't rebellion, it's a retreat.

Astropig
Astropig

@Kamchak @Astropig


Whoa, simmer down there big guy! no need to get upset. We're just having a little give and take here.You were a conservative once, nothing to be ashamed of. No biggie. Some people don't find their place in life for a long time. You rebelled and became a lib. It's all good.

Kamchak
Kamchak

@Astropig 

You rebelled and became a lib.

First day of that brand new remedial reading comprehension class?

Just askin'.

Astropig
Astropig

@Kamchak @Astropig


Just readin' what you wrote about your days as a right wingnut.

Kamchak
Kamchak

@Astropig 

When people get older and want to have more than a handout from Uncle Sugar, they rebel and vote Republican.

(sigh)

Got proof?

Kamchak
Kamchak

@stands_for_decibels 

why, I am beginning to believe the answer to this question is "no."

I am beginning to believe the same person is posting this meme under many sock-puppets.

LeninTime
LeninTime

@Astropig @LeninTime @CommonSenseisntCommon @stands_for_decibels


Anybody that thinks the difference between the two supposedly opposing parties/ideologies in this country is about the amount of "handouts" that are given out is an imbecile. 


And anybody who thinks the primary problem facing a $17 trillion economy, that always had a pretty skimpy social safety net even at its peak, is over-dependency on entitlements is an idiot.

Claver
Claver

@Astropig @stands_for_decibels "She died on a teachers pension ..."  Well, most teachers have a pretty sweet pension, so good for her. You certainly don't find many private sector pension anymore.