A deeper dive into the GOP’s problem with younger voters

Todd Rehm, a Republican political consultant, pollster and commentator, last week challenged the validity of my column that  pointed out how poorly the Republican Party appears to be performing among younger Georgians.

“… put down the Pepto-Bismol, my fellow Republican strategists,” Rehm advised his readers. “The news isn’t nearly as dire, in fact it doesn’t even really qualify as news. Because Jay Bookman’s margin of error is huge.”

Rehm goes on to make the reasonable point that it’s dangerous to draw sweeping conclusions from small sample sizes. For example, when I cite a SurveyUSA poll showing that Senate candidate Michelle Nunn has an 11-point lead among Georgians 49 and younger, Rehm waves it away as meaningless because the sample size within that age group is relatively small, which means the margin of error is pretty large.

He’s right. Or at least, he would be if that were the only poll that we had to draw upon. Fortunately for my argument, we have access to a lot of polls in addition to the SurveyUSA poll. As I pointed out in the original column — and as Rehm chose to ignore — a recent poll commissioned by the AJC produced results that closely track those produced by SurveyUSA. For example, when asked what party Georgians identity with or lean toward, we find:

18-39      40-64     65+

Democratic               57%         43        31

Republican               32%         47        59

Independent              8%            6         7

In fact, let’s take a look at the crosstabs of five different Georgia polls by five different pollsters in the race between Gov. Nathan Deal and state Sen. Jason Carter, just to see what we find (Rasmussen also conducted a poll in the last month, but its crosstabs aren’t publicly available):

  • In the AJC poll cited above, Carter had a lead of 55 percent to 26 percent among Georgians under 40, a 29-point advantage.
  • In the SurveyUSA poll cited above, Carter had a 10-point lead among Georgians younger than 50, an advantage that was offset by Deal’s seven-point lead among those older than 50.
  • An InsiderAdvantage poll taken Sept. 9-10 gave Deal a five-point lead over Carter. However, among Georgians aged 18-29, Carter was up 45 percent to 27 percent, an 18-point margin.
  • A YouGov poll taken Aug.18 to Sept. 2 showed Deal up by seven points, but Carter enjoyed a 28-point margin among voters 18-29 and a 13-point margin among voters aged 30 to 44. Deal’s overall lead in that poll was attributable to the massive 38-point margin he enjoyed among those 65 and older.
  • A Landmark poll taken Sept. 9-11 showed Carter with a slight advantage among the 18-39 demographic and a 10-point margin among those aged 40-64. But in that poll, Deal was able to keep the race tight thanks to a large, 12-point advantage among those 65 and older.

Clearly, the subgroup numbers among those five polls vary quite a bit, as you would expect with smaller sample sizes, different polling methods and different breakouts by age group. Yet from poll to poll, the larger story that they tell remains consistent: The Democratic Party and its candidates are doing disproportionately well among younger Georgians, while the Republican Party’s overall advantage is attributable to its own disproportionate popularity among Georgians 65 and older.

If Georgia Republicans prefer to read the numbers some other way, I guess that’s fine with me.

Reader Comments 0

581 comments
Jackie_36
Jackie_36

In my "laundry list" of hyperbole by the so-called conservatives and new secessionists, I did not mention the fact they indicated the money was not available to help the vets, yet, they project this enormous threat by ISIS - who has only 30,000 to 40,000 fighters - they can find all the money needed to satisfy whomever they want. 


Where does this "magic money" come from?


Why did the refuse to fund infrastructure upgrade when ALL economists said more than 3 Million citizens would be put to work instantly and the economy would boom.

Peachs
Peachs

@Jackie_36 

The only miracle drug for the right is war. It kills young people not exactly their strike zone for votes, it filters money to their cronies who then fund their campaigns and it scares the country into believing we need security, like an abusive husband convincing his hospitalized wife to give him one more chance.

Peachs
Peachs

@GaBlue @Peachs 

I mean we could be like the Baptist in Salt Lake City going door to door, we show up at FOX maybe 15,000 of us and have a revival against Satan and call the old boy right out of Rupert’s office.We go crazy like madman with guns at an abortion clinic, making chants for anybody daring to go in or come out, while we hand out flyers.Have pray ins wishing God does bad things to Rupert on loudspeakers. Let other networks come in broadcast it and sell advertisements.

LilBarryBailout
LilBarryBailout

Remind us who's been in charge of the constant war the last five-plus years.

Hypocrite.

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

@Jackie_36 

So if Republicans recognize a threat to national security, they'd better pay for everything the bamster-bots want before they spend money on their war-mongering. 

That's nice.  How about when democratics raise a threat about any other war.... let's see.......  ON: women, racism, diversity, understanding, gay marriage "bans", racism women, education for the poor, racism, women, birth control "prohibitions" (ha ha (cackles like Joe Biden)), education for minorities, childhood hunger, childhood obesity, women, racism, guns but not crime......... THEY'D BETTER BE ABLE TO PAY FOR IT TOO? 

Naw, too much to ask of demagoguing bamster bot leftists. 

Jackie_36
Jackie_36

Wonder how the so-called conservatives and new secessionists have voted to deny AMERICANS food stamp help, student loan relief, minimum wage, extended unemployment, paycheck fairness, wage theft and still proclaim they are the only party trying to help everyone?

Peachs
Peachs

@Jackie_36 

This is the heart of the fake, I am a Christian as long as you don’t bring em home for dinner. Every thing the left does says they care and everything the right does says the don’t, very simple formula.

Jackie_36
Jackie_36

@ThulsaDoom @Jackie_36 You response sounds like the typical "bootstraps" argument.


How do you pull yourself up by your bootstraps when you don't have boots?

Peachs
Peachs

@ThulsaDoom @Jackie_36 

We are going to help these people like it or not, it is just cheaper realizing they are here to stay and we are not going to allow dead bodies floating in the streets unless the Republicans return to power. It is like the drug wars, you can’t get it in the thick skulls of the right your way is not working and costing us money. We have wasted far more money on prisons and lives in their stubbornness to admit they were wrong than we ever lost feeding a child a descent meal or supplying a little healthcare. You have a vision of the world about like someone who has never lived in it.  .

MrSnarky
MrSnarky

It's called whistling through the graveyard...don't change a thing guys!  Everything is awesome.

Traveling Man
Traveling Man

The gop are telling you the iraqi troops can't fight so they are admitting their patraes surge was an epic disaste


_________


It bought us some quiet and allowed us to get ut troops out.   But did not result in any permanent peace.



Just hope we do not make the mistake of going back in.


I saw the troops we have there, that we say are not combat troops are drawing combat pay.


Sounds like combat troops to me.  Getting sucked into that quicksand pit again I fear.


Bring the troops home now.

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

Top 5  Kook news sources


1- the daily show

2-the Colbert report

3- Monty python

4- rawstory spam

5-think progress

GaBlue
GaBlue

@ThulsaDoom

As a Kook American, I am beginning to suspect you are a racist.

LogicalDude
LogicalDude

@ThulsaDoom "Kook"


Does this mean "liberal" in your world, or any ignorant person? 


Just checking to see how your use of the word does not match the general definition of the word. :) 


ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@GaBlue @ThulsaDoom


And I am beginning to suspect that you make very blanket judgements on people on a very regular basis. How else do you explain your pronouncements and judgements on who is a "fake Christian" or a "fake patriot". Who made you judge of who is what? Who do you think you are to make such sweeping judgments and condemnations of other people?- God?

SeriouslyFolks
SeriouslyFolks

@ThulsaDoom @GaBlue Do you ever read what you type before posting???  I mean, please read that first sentence you JUST wrote...over and over again.....

I think you should just print that out and hang right at your desk....talk about IRONY!!!!!

GaBlue
GaBlue

@ThulsaDoom

I offered my definitions below and invited you to agree, disagree, or offer your own definitions. In no way am I attempting to monopolize definitions, but I do have the right to express my opinion on what I can clearly see.

Peachs
Peachs

@GaBlue @ThulsaDoom 

Blue maybe we need to just go with the flow. Maybe we are wrong not hating something; all my life I thought I was happy, but who knows maybe I am missing something. Yep I feel better already think I will go buy a gun and really get my rocks off.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@CommonSenseisntCommon @stands_for_decibels I could see using it when (irresponsibly, I guess...) speculating how Zimmerman might choose to go out, in a blaze of glory.


But yeah, we probably oughta retire it. Along with "drinking the Kool-aid," which I continue to work on.

GaBlue
GaBlue

Most young people I know are either disgusted by fake Christians who use religion to justify bigotry and selfishness (and fake patriots who hate more of their fellow Americans than they like), or they tune the fakers out entirely and go on with their lives.

Attention fakers: Your relevance is slipping away faster than bald tires on an ice-covered exit ramp. The day is fast approaching when the only people who care what you think won't even hear you over the buzzing of their hearing aids. Good riddance!

Peachs
Peachs

@GaBlue you nailed it, I use to think the right is going to kill the church, but now I think they just culled it out of the pretenders, which probably is a favor.  The church is plenty shakey just not because of money changers so much.  Real fair conservative thinking is not a bad thing, it is the manipulators that trash the message. 

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@GaBlue


And who made you the arbiter of who is a "fake Christian" or a "fake patriot"? Oh. That's right. If they don't agree with your far left narrative then they must be "fake Christian" or "fake patriot". 


And this is what apparently constitutes logical thought from the far left. Geez. 

Peachs
Peachs

@ThulsaDoom @GaBlue 

Obviously not the Georgia constituents, you put God in the sentence and you go up 10% for just using the name, then use hate in code four or five times and you got yourself a job if you are Republican, if you are Democrat they think you are sounding stupid just to flatter them.

Peachs
Peachs

@GaBlue @ThulsaDoom Blue is hot today!  You got a region who loves to be politcally correct on holidays but are separationist on the days that count and then want to blame others for the poverty their thinking has provided them. 

Normd
Normd

@Peachs @GaBlue 

I've said it before, you don't need religion and it needs to be put away.  Your relationship with God comes from the heart and not from some dude telling you the only way to heaven is if you belong to his religion and send or give him your money, and tell you that anyone who is not like him and believe what he believes need to be shunned or worse.

 There are many roads to the gates of heaven...and all of them are toll free.

GaBlue
GaBlue

@ThulsaDoom

Fair question! As such, I'll put it out there:

Fake Christian = those who claim to be Christians but refuse to follow the primary teachings of Christ and publicly deride those who advocate doing so.

Fake Patriot = those who claim to love their country, but have nothing but mean things to say about most Americans, advocate secession, and stockpile automatic weapons in their basement for the purpose of overthrowing the government.

Please feel free to agree, disagree, or offer your own definitions.

idigalot
idigalot

fake patriots fly the confederate flag while reciting the pledge of allegiance.

fake christians say things like "I hate all muslims."

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

And to think we thought the kooks got all their news from the Daily Show and the Colbert Report. It appears now that Monty Python is now their 3rd news source. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@HeadleyLamar @ThulsaDoom


Studies by who? Left wing academics? And did they manage to study all the tens of millions of Rs and Ds? No? Of course not. Simple extrapolation of the demographics of the people who comprise the 2 parties shows very clearly that Republicans tend to have higher educational attainment. 

SeriouslyFolks
SeriouslyFolks

@ThulsaDoom @HeadleyLamar Wow. Says the same guy who talks incessently about the "liberal elite" and "Soros".....

Of course "educational attainment" and actually have a lick of "common sense" seems very lost on you, eh?

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@ThulsaDoom


Simple extrapolation of the demographics of the people who comprise the 2 parties shows very clearly that Republicans tend to have higher educational attainment. 



Well, it happened again: As in 2008, Barack Obama won those voters with a post-graduate degree by a huge margin on Tuesday -- 13 points. That's smaller than the 18-point margin that Obama achieved in 2008, but still substantial.



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-callahan/why-obama-won-the-postgra_b_2093523.html


Care to revise your BS statement


Of course you dont.

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@SeriouslyFolks @ThulsaDoom @HeadleyLamar


So how can I use the term "liberal elite" when I quit using the term "liberal" to describe progressives a while back? Calling the progs "liberal" is an insult to the true liberal tradition of thinkers like Adam Smith, FA Hayek, Milton Friedman, etc. When you have to LIE to make a point you really don't have a point sir. Have you not noticed that I use other terms to describe you guys- progs for progressives, leftists, and of course my favorite- the kooks. Out of all my posts today please show me just once where I called you guys "liberals". Go ahead. I triple dog dare ya!

SeriouslyFolks
SeriouslyFolks

@ThulsaDoom @SeriouslyFolks @HeadleyLamar "when you have to lie to make a point"...ahhhhh your favorite little line...

You do know that "lying" and "making shyte up as you go" are kind of the same genre, right??

As in... "With the point being to question established assumptions "on BOTH sides" of an argument. And that is not what happens in many major universities and colleges"..(Doomy)

And yes, saying something is "happening" with zero to prove it, is kinda making shyte up....

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@SeriouslyFolks @ThulsaDoom @HeadleyLamar


In terms of common sense you guys are beyond help. But that's just my opinion just as it might be the opinion of the progs that cons lack common sense. But "common sense" cannot be empirically measured while educational attainment can. And it stands to reason that if the R constituency has higher overall educational attainment that we likely have more common sense as well. Or is that just too much "common sense" for your little noggin to handle?

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@ThulsaDoom Regardless


They would be much better informed than a Fox News viewer.


In fact studies have shown.


You are better off watching no news at all than Fox.


NPR listeners tended to be the most informed group....Not surprising. 

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@HeadleyLamar @ThulsaDoom @SeriouslyFolks


Show me one proven lie from me. I can show at least 2 from you. Number one you stated on the day that the exchange opened that you had absolutely no problem signing up on the exchange website. That was the most laughable lie on Kyle's site for a long, long time. Then a month or 2 later when Kyle wrote about employees losing their employee coverage you opined that you had no problem keeping your employer coverage- which is in direct contradiction to your previous statement that you not only signed up for an Obamacare plan but that you were able to do so on the very first day of the website opening up and that you had absolutely no problem signing up- a statement so ludicrous that no rational person would believe that pile of crap. 

Peachs
Peachs

@HeadleyLamar @ThulsaDoom 

Lord now we are explaining why fat girls don’t win beauty contest, if you seriously listen to FOX for facts, which I am convinced Bush did while getting us in Iraq for a witch hunt, then you are closer to leading a third world revolution than understanding American values.

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@SeriouslyFolks @ThulsaDoom @HeadleyLamar


Only an idiot doesn't believe that most of our major universities and their faculties don't lean left. The fact that you even want to debate the point speaks volumes about your sheer ignorance on the topic of higher education in America.


From that bastion of progressivism the WaPO. 


College faculties, long assumed to be a liberal bastion, lean further to the left than even the most conspiratorial conservatives might have imagined, a new study says.

By their own description, 72 percent of those teaching at American universities and colleges are liberal and 15 percent are conservative, says the study being published this week. The imbalance is almost as striking in partisan terms, with 50 percent of the faculty members surveyed identifying themselves as Democrats and 11 percent as Republicans.


The disparity is even more pronounced at the most elite schools, where, according to the study, 87 percent of faculty are liberal and 13 percent are conservative.

"What's most striking is how few conservatives there are in any field," said Robert Lichter, a professor at George Mason University and a co-author of the study. "There was no field we studied in which there were more conservatives than liberals or more Republicans than Democrats. It's a very homogenous environment, not just in the places you'd expect to be dominated by liberals."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8427-2005Mar28.html

Nobody_Knows
Nobody_Knows

@ThulsaDoom @SeriouslyFolks @HeadleyLamar 

Does that study back up this claim as well?

 

"Simple extrapolation of the demographics of the people who comprise the 2 parties shows very clearly that Republicans tend to have higher educational attainment. "



LOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@HeadleyLamar @ThulsaDoom


Hey Mr. Silly,


We're talking about the entire spectrum of people who vote R vs those who vote D- not a particular stratified group such as people with Phds. And as I've already pointed out the academic establishment has been left wing for a long time. Why did you move the goal posts to talk only about the small percentage of people in the U.S. who have Phds? 

Nobody_Knows
Nobody_Knows

@ThulsaDoom @HeadleyLamar 

By 2008, the Republican advantage of the early 1980s among voters with a college degree or higher had disappeared. Barack Obama carried this demographic with 54.1 percent. He beat McCain 50-48 among those with bachelor’s degrees, and by a decisive 58-40 among the 17 percent of the 2008 electorate with post-graduate degrees.

The shifting allegiance of the better-educated – together with the growth of such pro-Democratic constituencies as single women, Hispanics and African-Americans — has been a crucial factor in the revival of the Democratic Party as a fully competitive force in presidential elections. The party’s gains have, in many respects, made up for losses among white working class voters.

 http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/the-politics-of-going-to-college/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

SeriouslyFolks
SeriouslyFolks

@ThulsaDoom @SeriouslyFolks @HeadleyLamar And please do tell how this has anything to do with the price of tea in china????

you know, I sit here an listen to your incoherent rants all the time...and you read mine.....does that mean I am "changing"??? nope..neither are you...but at least you and I both have an inkling of what drives each others opinions, right??

Isnt that the type of education you want the next generation to have??? Cause again, innovation comes from questioning.....and if you dont have the wilingness to question, then you lose that innovation....

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@Nobody_Knows @LordHelpUs @HeadleyLamar @ThulsaDoom


The conversation was about the total populations of the groups that vote R vs D.- not about a very small subset of the population that has Phds. Looking at the demographics of the population that vote R there is more overall educational attainment than in the groups that vote D. And its not a debatable point sir. 

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@Nobody_Knows @ThulsaDoom @SeriouslyFolks @HeadleyLamar


And you're still focusing on a very small subset of people that have Phds and ignoring the fact that I referenced the entire demographics of the people who vote R vs D. You guys really going to refer to the very, very small subset of Phds to try and make a point. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!

You guys are even dumber than I thought. 

Peachs
Peachs

@ThulsaDoom @SeriouslyFolks @HeadleyLamar 

Liberal is just a word, means nothing in this radical world of execration. A person doesn’t listen to FOX he is a flaming liberal, and then the most anti-American since the civil war call the most loyal Americans the ones who have died trying to get here, anti American. Go figure..

Peachs
Peachs

@ThulsaDoom @Peachs @HeadleyLamar 

You keep watching your FOX, like those old drunks hanging around the liquid store hoping for a handout. They never drink milk just whisky, milk ,in their minds is bad stuff, makes them feel bad. Look at your lives tell me where misinformation got ya.Man we need to send the Salvation Army over to FOX and shut em down have a tent revival in their parking lot.