Are there silver linings in this for Democrats? Well ….

OK, it’s time to look for silver linings for Democrats here in Georgia and nationally, an activity that giddy conservatives would probably describe as consolation for losers.

Fair enough, but here goes anyway:

During the campaign, I noted often that Democrats seemed to be polling very well among younger voters in Georgia, while Republicans were highly dependent on those 65 and older. Did that show up at the voting booth? According to the Georgia exit polls, yes it did:

age 2014Nunn did very well among voters 44 and younger, but lost the senior citizen vote by almost 30 points. And since seniors turn out while younger voters do not, that can be decisive. (Nationally, Republicans won the senior citizen vote by 15 points, still substantial but half the margin that they enjoyed in that demographic here in Georgia.)

Georgia Democrats would also like to tell themselves that they would have done better without an unpopular president dragging them down. Does the exit poll give them evidence on which to base that belief? To a degree it does:

Obama 2014When 47 percent of the electorate walks into the voting booth already strongly opposed to the president of your party, you have a tough row to hoe. Overcoming it is almost impossible, which also explains why Perdue stressed that point so much in his campaign.

A lot of Democrats have advocated a more aggressively populist approach on issues such as the minimum wage, but party leaders have shied away from that line of attack, particularly in conservative states such as Georgia. Do exit poll data shed light on who was right?

MinwageEven with a conservative, midterm Georgia electorate, 56 percent say they would favor raising the minimum wage, while just 40 percent say they would oppose it. That’s consistent with the findings of a broader question, asked in the national exit poll in House races:

econ:natBy an almost two-to-one margin, Americans believe the economic system is tilted toward the wealthy. It’s a sentiment shared by more than a third of those who voted Republican, which suggests that come 2016, both parties better find a way to address it.

And what about amnesty for immigrants who are here illegally? Last night’s results have encouraged Republicans to continue to take an absolutist, no-way, not-ever position on that issue, but the American people seem to have different ideas:

amnesty

And if a vacancy opens on the Supreme Court, putting the question of abortion on the front-burner again?

abortion

On those and similar questions, however, you also have to factor intensity into the equation. Even if a significant majority of Americans in a more conservative, off-year electorate support both amnesty and abortion rights, those taking the minority position on those issues do so more fervently. And one of the reminders from last night’s results is that fervency can matter. It gets people to the voting booth, while apathy does not.

Finally, here’s a finding that at first blush gives conservatives some encouragement going into 2016, as if they needed it these days:

Hillary

At this point, only 42 percent of those who voted in the 2014 midterms believe that Clinton would make a good president. The problem is, the numbers for potential GOP candidates such as Jeb Bush (29%), Chris Christie (24)%, Rand Paul (26%) and Rick Perry (24%) are even lower.

We’re not happy with anybody these days, not with each other and not with those who would attempt to lead us.

Reader Comments 0

1421 comments
Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

jeez, no SHEETZ call? come on, don't hang me out here, bros.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

Not super-timely, but I figured I might as well say it clearly--


For me, the only real newsy-news out of the midterm results, after all is said and done, is that the polling for 2014 had a pro-Democratic skew of +4%, according to Nate @ 538 (and I see no reason to dispute this, it checks out pretty well at any race I can think of.)

It is not unprecedented; the 1998 elections had a pro-Republican skew of +4.9, apparently.

So the rule is, you can apply weights and whatnot to polling but you have to be prepared for them being off here and there. Bottom line though, the polling showed the GOP retaking the house in most scenarios and they did. Anything that looked like they might "need" help to have things break their way, they got. 

DS
DS

Silver lining? I wouldn't go that far, but a realistic perspective might help.

In Georgia, Republicans felt they had to fight and spend lots of money on their campaigns. From DuBose Porter's notes: Nunn cut into GOP strongholds like Cobb and Gwinnett counties and won Douglas and Henry counties outright. No Democratic incumbent seats were lost. Democrats continued to stop a super-majority in the House. Republicans had their smallest margin of victory since 2002. Democrats were competitive.

In the US, most of the competitive senate races were in red states, and some have Democratic senators who rode the Democratic wave in 2008. This is a midterm election in President Obama's second term, a time when the incumbent party usually loses ground. For these reasons, most pundits expected those states to swing back to their Republican tendencies in this election, and they did.

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

 Oh, nothing subjective there...does your inability to qualify any OBJECTIVE measures cause you to at least reflect a bit...

-------------------------------

Objectively speaking then:  Republicans won back the Senate as they impugned democrats with obama's policies even as democrats attempted to avoid discussion of obama and his policies. 

LordHelpUs
LordHelpUs

@Yes_Jesus_Can You either have no idea of the definition of subjective vs objective or you are suffering from a severe case of dipsh!titus...

Philo_Farnsworth
Philo_Farnsworth

But, but, but.......Bush!

Just thought I'd get that out of the way this morning.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Philo_Farnsworth


Any other Apple people reporting issues like this?


I switch to the Android phone version from time to time, loses some functionality but otherwise works pretty well.

Haven't used it much with an Android tablet of late though.

UncleSamantha
UncleSamantha

AND NOW ITS TIME FOR ELIZABETH WARREN TO RUN AGAINST HILLARY FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

AT LEAST SHE CARES ABOUT THE MIDDLE CLASS

HILLIARY IS A PUPPET FOR WALL STREET AND THE 1%

FOR WHOM SHE SERVED AS SENATOR OF NEW YORK

WARREN VS CRUZ 2016

THAT WOULD BE ENTERTAINING

UncleSamantha
UncleSamantha

AND NOW THAT THE ELECTION IS OVER

ITS TIME FOR COMPANIES TO HAVE OPEN ENROLLMENT FOR INSURANCE

SO WE CAN ALL SEE

HOW LOW OUR PREMUMS AND DEDUCTIBLES HAVE DROPPED

LOL

Cupofjoe
Cupofjoe

you lose...

What?  This is a blog with made up names and photos- did I miss the scoreboard and/or referees?

LordHelpUs
LordHelpUs

Asked this earlier and never got a response...shocker.


Care to explain how 'the mess left by Obama' is worse than 'the mess left by Bush?'


Note: if you can only use subjective rather than objective criteria you lose...

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

@LordHelpUs 

You can't use objective criteria, Lordhelpus.  Your words "worse" and "mess" preclude an objective answer, especially for a partisan like yourself. 

The economy and employment have nearly always been a top concern of Americans.  The democrats seem to think that other issues were more important, like running away from the President's policies or, as Michelle Nunn disingenuously tried to do, pose with Republicans to adhere to their policies and successes. 

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

@LordHelpUs @Yes_Jesus_Can 

I don't think there is any way to gauge the degree of irresonsibility of 0bama vs. Bush, but it seems to me certainly that 0bama is far more remote, elitist, reclusive and irritated by the difficulties he faces. 

As far

Peachs
Peachs

I watch new Republicans say last night they plan to reach across the aisle for compromise.If they do all the money spent and blood lost on the Democrat’s side is worth it, we have changed the present day America. I don’t think it is in their nature but if it is I am all for it. Their definition of compromise is shut downs and boycotts, insults and witch hunts. It is a formula they now think worked for them so expect more, hope I am dead wrong but these people didn’t spend a billion dollars to care about what I think.

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

@Peachs 

Insults, huh Peachs? 

OK I'm watching you, girl.  Try and prove me wrong today. 

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

@Peachs 

Besides Democrats spent far MORE money than Republicans this election. 

Talk about SPENDING on insults--at least to Democrats "insult" meant labeling someone as a rubber stamp for bamster or for his senate majority leader, the "shut down" Reid. 

Yeah, "shut down" the senate that was republican's fault, uh huh. 

How many budgets did bamster and lieutenant Reid pass since bamster came to office. 

Give you a hint:  you can count it without any fingers or toes. 

Peachs
Peachs

@Yes_Jesus_Can @Peachs 

If the country gains by this I gain, we gain, so I pray you are right and I am very wrong. I wake up this morning in the poorest, most uneducated, backwards state in the union and your saying learn to like it. Ok I’ll try.

DS
DS

@Peachs Let's see what Ted Cruz does. In the current Congress, he went around Republican leadership in both the Senate and House and carried out his own agenda, despite criticism from his party. During campaign season, he traveled around helping candidates with their campaigns, collecting IOUs.

What McConnell and Boehner think or say might not matter.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Yes_Jesus_Can @Peachs


The "pass a budget" talking point again? Really?


Jeez, you'd have to be a mouth breathing FoxNoozer to continue thinking that packed a punch after it's been rendered neutralized so many times already.

UncleSamantha
UncleSamantha

@Peachs 

OBAMA WANTS TO CEMENT HIS LEGACY

REPUBLICANS WANT TO PROVE THEY CAN GOVERN SO THEY DON'T GET BOOTED IN 16

SO THEY BOTH HAVE REASON TO COMPROMISE

OF COURSE IT DOESN'T MEAN THEY WILL

Soothsayer2
Soothsayer2

 Job Cuts Surge 68%, Most In 3 Years; Worst October Since 2009

Maybe this explains the election results? Challenger reports US companies laid off over 51,000 people in October, the most since May (and 2nd most since Feb 2013). This is a68% surge MoM (and 11.9% rise YoY) - the biggest monthly rise since September 2011. Retail, Computer, and Pharma industries saw the biggest layoffs. Hiring also collapsed from the record 567,705 exuberance in September to just 147,935 in October.This was the worst October for layoffs since 2009.


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11/20141106_jobs.jpg


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-06/job-cuts-surge-68-most-3-years-worst-october-sicne-2009

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Just wait 'til them Republicans get in office. They'll "fix" this in a hurry!

Aztec
Aztec

Despite Democrats trying to lie about their support for Obama's policies, the electorate was not fooled. 

LordHelpUs
LordHelpUs

There has to be some kind of award for the message Mitch McConnell feels was 'sent' following his victory.


Numbnuts of the year is my nomination...

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

Skimming the Drunk O'clock posts, I am once again reminded of how much historical whitewashing is required to keep America's right wing convinced of their invincibility.

LordHelpUs
LordHelpUs

@stands_for_decibels You have no idea how many of my friends and coworkers that know my politics have called to tell me how thankful they are that we can now start cleaning up Obama's mess...


Unfreakin' believable...

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@LordHelpUs @ElemennoP @stands_for_decibels


Well we gotta get our guns and ammo back that he took, for starters.


(Hey, congrats to Elem for sticking to that screen name for two consecutive days, btw.)

LordHelpUs
LordHelpUs

@stands_for_decibels @LordHelpUs @ElemennoP Quite expected is that whatever his current name is, he does not seem capable of answering the question I asked:


Care to explain how 'the mess left by Obama' is worse than the mess left by Bush?


I'll wait breathlessly...