Joe Biden for president? Much more likely than not

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“The vice president has not made a decision about his political future,” a spokeswoman for Joe Biden told the Wall Street Journal over the weekend. “Anyone speculating that he has made a decision is wrong.”

Put another way, Biden is thinking about a presidential run and thinking about it pretty seriously. And once those thoughts start running through your head, history and human nature suggest that they’re hard to silence. Biden wants to be president; he has long wanted to be president, and if this is a longshot bid from a man whose previous efforts have fallen short, well, it’s also the last time the 72-year-old will have any chance at all.

So a couple of questions to be addressed:

Can he win the nomination?

Biden didn’t launch a presidential bid a year or six months ago because Hillary Clinton had come to seem the inevitable Democratic nominee. He’s considering it now because Clinton no longer seems so inevitable. I still believe that the Clinton email story has been overblown, the consequence of a media world with little else to cover on the Democratic side. Based on everything we know to this point, a secretary of state’s decision to use a private email server rather than a government email server, while a mistake, is not enough to bring down a major presidential campaign.

If that assessment proves wrong, it’s because the campaign in question had other serious problems that the choice of email server merely exposed. And that may indeed be plausible.

As noted above, Biden has made short-lived runs at the presidency before, and it’s hard to imagine what has changed to make the outcome different this time. He may be getting a lot of encouragement to run from inside the Washington bubble, but I don’t hear any great clamor from the rest of the country. A late, under-financed candidacy along the lines being contemplated by Biden can indeed catch fire when there is a magical match between person and opportunity, but I don’t see the conditions for that. By most accounts, Biden’s greatest asset in Washington is an ability to generate respect and affection among those with whom he works, including those across the aisle, and while that’s valuable and even admirable it’s a hard attribute to sell on the campaign trail.

As vice president, Biden hasn’t been associated in the public mind with any specific policy initiative.  At this point he lacks a message, a justification for his candidacy beyond personal ambition. His private meeting with Sen. Elizabeth Warren last week is an acknowledgement of where the energy lies that he must attempt to tap, the same populist energy that Sen. Bernie Sanders has excited on the campaign trail.

In some minds, Sanders is serving much the same function in 2015 as Sen. Eugene McCarthy in 1968. The surprising early success that McCarthy enjoyed in primaries against President Lyndon Johnson exposed Johnson’s vulnerabilities, forced LBJ from the race and drew Sen. Robert Kennedy to announce his own candidacy. RFK was probably on his way to the nomination and perhaps the presidency when an assassin’s bullet cut him down.

The problem with that model is that even if Sanders is another McCarthy and Hillary another LBJ, Joe Biden is no Robert Kennedy.

If Biden runs, does it help or hurt Democratic changes in 2016?

If Biden does run for president, it wouldn’t be as the anti-Hillary. More like the non-Hillary. And as a result, I don’t think the Democratic Party has anything to fear from a Biden candidacy.  At worst, he would bring new attention to the race and force the Clinton campaign to step up its game. In fact, a spirited, policy-based primary campaign among Clinton, Biden, Sanders and even Martin O’Malley would cast the party in a positive light compared to what looks to be a bloody spectacle on the GOP side.

And at best, Biden represents a failsafe for the party should Clinton continue to have problems. He would be there to step in if the top dog stumbles, ironically a role much like the one that he has played the last seven years.

 

 

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1418 comments
foo2u
foo2u

OMG... I did not realize Sarah Palin was still on TV... she's got a show on some obscure "news" channel. It's truly frightening, watching her, thinking there's a large number of wingnuts out there who wish this vacuous moron were leading this country.

_GodlessHeathen_
_GodlessHeathen_

"So if I'm to believe many right-leaners posting here, I guess that the scarily-diabolical Team Clinton apparently never bothered to develop some kind of a contingency plan to have in place for a possible Joe Biden candidacy say, a year or three ago."

I'm sure they have a plan of attack for Joe.  I doubt they thought they would need it.

OriginalProf
OriginalProf

This blog seems taken over by the FEEBLES.  What a bore.

THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE
THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE

@TBS


remind us


who YOU were


before YOU were


BANNED


you are not a feeble conservative


and 


you are not a feeble liberal


but you ARE



FEEBLE TROLL

TBS
TBS

Two previously banned bloggers doing what they do best...... Desperately seek attention

THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE
THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE

"I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself." by RONALD REAGAN

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

 Hey, Jose', If you vote for us we'll serve your kid free tacos for lunch so you and the other 8 families living in that house don't have to

Can't imagine why the GOP can't seem to win that fickle Hispanic vote.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@fiftythreepercenter @Visual_Cortex

continue pretending 

Oh golly gosh, if only I weren't so very Pee Ceee and able to speak my mind about what I really think about Those Brown People.

If only I were a liberated white man like our 53.

Life'd be grand, I tells ya. Grand

THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE
THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE

"Grown men should not be having sex with prostitutes unless they are married to them" by JERRY FALWELL

fiftythreepercenter
fiftythreepercenter

"But NEVER directed at those above him getting unearned breaks at his expense."


I've supported elimination of all the tax breaks for years and going to a flat rate, no deductions system.  You, on the other hand, want to whine like a 4 year old begging for a cookie about people taking legal deductions while refusing to change the tax code.  It's like you want to eliminate all deductions for anybody doing better than you in life and somehow that will make your life better.  


So, Paul, please either quite whining about the tax code or support those of us who want to eliminate it.  You can't have it both ways, dude.  Life just don't work that way.

Paul42
Paul42

@fiftythreepercenter

Memory failing you again, it seems.  

But not enough to ascribe to people things they've never said.

Flat tax?  Still want to shift the burden to the middle class?  Riiiight.......

No deductions?  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!  Good luck selling THAT to all the middle class people with mortgages, the religious folks and their donations, the taxpayers with a couple kids, small business owners out there. not to mention the really big corporations, who are paying next to a nothing percentage right now.  They're gonna LOVE that idea.

fiftythreepercenter
fiftythreepercenter

@Paul42 @fiftythreepercenter "Flat tax?  Still want to shift the burden to the middle class?  Riiiight..."


Yawn....  Let's just shift it all to the top 10 wealthiest Americans and get it over with.  Will that make you happy, Paul, or do you get more joy from spewing stupidity?


BTW, That tax code you think is ridiculous is what they have in those socialist utopias you yearn for.  That's how they pay for all that crap, Paul.  Maybe a little education is in order for you????

Paul42
Paul42

@fiftythreepercenter

That was an awful quick deflection away from your racist comments, 53.  You're getting real good at backtracking.

Your second paragraph is pretty dumb.  It's the kind of statement you make when you're boxing yourself in.

Third paragraph:  yep. White flag has risen.

fiftythreepercenter
fiftythreepercenter

@Paul42 @fiftythreepercenter Paul, you and your minions call everything racist, so the rest of us pretty much ignore you at this point.  It appears it's the only tool you have in your tiny little bag of tricks.


Shall we assume the rest of my post was over your head?  I'll try to dumb it down for you next time.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

So if I'm to believe many right-leaners posting here, I guess that the scarily-diabolical Team Clinton apparently never bothered to develop some kind of a contingency plan to have in place for a possible Joe Biden candidacy say, a year or three ago.

THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE
THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE

feeble conservative


DUMBisms:


"when the president does it, that means it's not illegal"  by RICHARD NIXON


"we spent a lot of time talking about Africa, as we should. Africa is a nation that suffers from incredible disease" by GEORGE W BUSH


"The only way to reduce the number of nuclear weapons is to use them." by RUSH LIMBAUGH


"Carbon dioxide is portrayed as harmful. But there isn't even one study that can be produced that shows that carbon dioxide is a harmful gas." by MICHELLE BACHMANN


"Refudiate,' 'misunderestimate,' 'wee-wee'd up.' English is a living language. Shakespeare liked to coin new words too. Got to celebrate it!" by SARAH PALIN


LOLOLOLOLOLOL

THEFEEBLELIBERAL
THEFEEBLELIBERAL

a BLOW to the liberal agenda


lol


Duke students reject award-winning book over gay themes


(CNN)"Fun Home" may have won several awards for author Alison Bechdel, but some Duke University freshmen were not impressed.

The 2006 graphic novel, an autobiographical work about Bechdel coming to terms with her homosexuality as her funeral-director father remains closeted, was selected as a summer reading book for the Duke Class of 2019. But some students declined to read it because of its sexual themes and use of nudity.

"I feel as if I would have to compromise my personal Christian moral beliefs to read it," incoming freshman Brian Grasso wrote on Facebook, according to the Duke Chronicle.

"The nature of 'Fun Home' means that content that I might have consented to read in print now violates my conscience due to its pornographic nature," freshman Jeffrey Wubbenhorst added in an email to the publication.

THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE
THEFEEBLECONSERVATIVE

@THEFEEBLELIBERAL


the feeble conservative mind


is TOO CONCERNED


with where one man puts his THING


could it be that the feeble conservative mind


is JEALOUS


muwahahahaha

skydog12
skydog12

@THEFEEBLELIBERAL


Puritan Prudes. My personal Christian morals beliefs allow me to read ANYTHING and make a conscience decision to accept or reject it. My God does not want me to NOT read anything. That is why he gave us analytical brains. 

LeninTime
LeninTime

@Hedley_Lammar 

Just Summers and only a fool would think he wasn't a bit sore about not getting the job and that the person who did isn't doing as well as he would have

***
Maybe Summers bears a grudge about not getting the Fed gig.

But it's not like he's trashing Yellen. He's offering a view on a predicament that no serious observer denies exists.

fiftythreepercenter
fiftythreepercenter

"It's insulting, demeaning, stereotypical and racist.  And it's why conservatives will continue to lose nationally."


Actually, Paul, it's true.  The entire dem platform consists of promises to take money from group A and either give it to group B or cover group B's share of expenses with it.  Hell, Paul, even the cuts you people want to make to defense spending are so you can shift the money to pay for social services (freebies) for your base.  It's ALL about free stuff with you people.  

LeninTime
LeninTime

@fiftythreepercenter 

The entire dem platform consists of promises to take money from group A and either give it to group B

**
Aww, our petty bourgeois shopkeeper,
resentful as always, is beating the drum again this morning, shaking his fist at the people below him getting unearned breaks at his expense.

LeninTime
LeninTime

@Paul42 

Oh no, absolutely not. His tongue stays out perpetually ready to lick their boots at any chance.  Hence the '53' part. 

#wannabe

Paul42
Paul42

@LeninTime

But NEVER directed at those above him getting unearned breaks at his expense.

People gotta know their place -