Economic reality, GOP ideology like two ships passing in the night

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After winning control of the Senate last year, congressional Republicans moved to put a conservative stamp on the Congressional Budget Office, whose reports had become a source of significant aggravation.  Time after time, the agency kept on telling Congress and the rest of the country things that the GOP did not want to hear, and this was their chance to fix it.

So out went Doug Elmendorf as CBO director; in came Keith Hall, a conservative economist who had served as an economic adviser to President George W. Bush and is, among other things, a critic of the Affordable Care Act and of raising the minimum wage. Democrats were unhappy with the change; Republicans were quite pleased.

“Keith Hall will bring an impressive level of economic expertise and experience to the Congressional Budget Office,” House Budget Committee Chairman Tom Price of Roswell said at the time. “His vast understanding of economic and labor market policy will be invaluable to the work of CBO.”

Yesterday, under Hall’s leadership, the revamped CBO released its analysis of President Obama’s proposed 2016 budget. Here’s what it had to say:

“CBO estimates that, under the President’s proposals, the nation’s real (inflation-adjusted) gross national product (GNP) would be 0.4 percent higher, on average, during the 2016–2020 period, and 1.7 percent higher during the 2021–2025 period, than under current law. After incorporating the proposals’ macroeconomic feedback into the budget, CBO estimates that deficits under the President’s proposals would be $1.4 trillion smaller during the 2016–2025 period than in CBO’s baseline, which is a projection of the paths that federal revenues and spending would take over the next decade if current laws generally remained unchanged.”

You read that correctly. Under the president’s proposals, which include more spending on social programs and infrastructure as well as slightly higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations, the country would experience significantly higher growth than under current law, and deficits would be lowered by $1.4 trillion over the next decade. Or so says the conservative-run CBO.

But wait, it gets better, or maybe worse depending on your point of view. The CBO attributes part of that potential improvement to the president’s proposals on immigration reform. (As the agency notes, Obama’s proposals closely mirror the comprehensive immigration-reform package that was passed by the Senate in 2013 but that the House refused to consider.)

According to the CBO, the president’s immigration-reform package, including his deferred-action program on deportation, “would affect the economy more directly than presidential proposals usually would — by increasing the size of the labor force and changing the legal status of some current workers — and the feedback from that increase would result in significantly higher receipts from income and payroll taxes.”

Let me repeat that last part: Immigration reform “would result in significantly higher receipts from income and payroll taxes.”

One final note:

At a press conference Tuesday in which these results were announced, the CBO’s new director was asked by a reporter about the longtime assertion by some conservatives that tax cuts “pay for themselves.”

“No,” Hall said bluntly. “The evidence is that tax cuts do not pay for themselves. And our models that we’re doing, our macroeconomic effects, show that.”

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1467 comments
St Simons he-ne-ha
St Simons he-ne-ha

I think sfd/VC is onto something. Can't post the link from the hospital, but several state Republican parties, who run the primaries, are moving to add a purity clause to the Qualification requirements to be a Republican candidate in their primary, which among other crayzee junk, makes them agree to not run evah as a 3rd pahhty candidate.

Wow.

This is funner to watch than those trickle downers yesterday get wiped out

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

Well, Jay's got sheetz, and they're not of the retrospectin' nature.

Oh well, I'm gonna post this anyway, and head upstairs.


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-bridge-to-gretna/3/


The day the Gretna police put the ban on pedestrians crossing the bridge into effect, he says, he was watching from his car. 


"Hold on a second now. I can't walk across the bridge? And that's the state's bridge.  [being blockaded by local cops.] Let's just get at the basic human rights. You got on the governor's bridge and stopped a Louisiana citizen from walking on the state's bridge. So who gave you the authority to stop that walk? It was non-violent. There weren't people walking with shotguns and rifles. They had to walk through shotguns and rifles," says Thomas. 


"It's not humane to intimidate women and children, old people, many who were on their last leg. If you could see the condition of people walking across the bridge, it was, literally the only way you could walk is one step at a time. But it was one calculated step at a time," says Thomas.


Told that Gretna police felt they were facing an unruly crown and felt threatened, Thomas says, "They felt threatened by dehydrated, starved, tired people. Sounds like they need a new police force."



Bulls_3y3
Bulls_3y3

@Visual_Cortex Katrina on the brain???  How many times are you going to beg Jay to post an article on Katrina??? 
 

It's like you got something to say, go ahead and say it sport

LeninTime
LeninTime

The New Orleans disaster that struck ten years ago and began to expose to the world the absolute, shocking incompetence of the political establishment of the U.S., incompetence that was already on display from the Iraq crime in 2003 and would again be on display a few years later in the financial meltdown.

That incompetence is still with us, hasn't changed. And is threatening to get even worse.

fiftythreepercenter
fiftythreepercenter

"You can always get around that...maybe you're just too cowardly to actually do that.  Wouldn't surprise me a bit."


Check out the tough guy calling people cowards on a blog.  LOL  You're too much, doggie.  Run along and play now...

Doggone_GA
Doggone_GA

@fiftythreepercenter @Doggone_GA You're gonna choose the "high ground" by claiming you can't post an insult because it's so bad the BNB won't allow it?

Yeah, that's the "high" ground alright

<snicker>

LeninTime
LeninTime

@Visual_Cortex  It's gonna be well-trod ground, but I suspect Jay's going to go with a Katrina lookback today

***

The Third World levels of poverty, the appalling urban neglect, the awful insufficiency of basic infrastructure in one of the nation's major cities, and of course, the boundless incompetence of its political establishment, the utter failure to cope with an entirely foreseeable event, in the year 2005!!!....the list goes on and on..

Yeah it's quite an indictment of U.S. capitalism. 

I'm sure Jay Bookman will walk us through all of these larger implications.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

It's gonna be well-trod ground, but I suspect Jay's going to go with a Katrina lookback today.

BuckeyeGa
BuckeyeGa

Katrina is one of the worst disasters in American history. I would like to read Jays take on it.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@BuckeyeGa

I'll admit to hoping that Jay might take this opportunity to go one-by-one and disabuse our right-leaning brethren (and, ok, maybe some left-leaners too) of their cherished articles of faith about what went wrong that horrible week.

_GodlessHeathen_
_GodlessHeathen_

@Visual_Cortex @BuckeyeGa

A great big hurricane hit a city that was constructed below sea level.
It was a trap, and we have now spent billions to reset the trap for the next time.

Doggone_GA
Doggone_GA

@_GodlessHeathen_ @Visual_Cortex @BuckeyeGa New Orleans has been in the same place for 300 years.  It has weathered big hurricanes before.  So what was different about Katrina?  Check into the issue of seacoast erosion for starters.

_GodlessHeathen_
_GodlessHeathen_

@Doggone_GA @_GodlessHeathen_ @Visual_Cortex @BuckeyeGa 

They didn't rely on levees and pumps 300 years ago.  And they flooded then, too. And they will flood again, no matter how many $billions we pour down that sheet hole.

Hurricanes have been a part of New Orleans history since the city was settled in the early 18th century by the French (Fitzpatrick, 1999). With an average elevation of 1.8 meters (6 feet) below sea level, New Orleans is a shallow depression ringed by levees and thus vulnerable to massive flooding because there is nowhere for floodwaters to go (Yamazaki, 2002).  A storm surge from a slow-moving Category 3, 4, or 5 storm can reach 30 feet (Fitzpatrick, 1999). This can create problems because the pumps designed to pump out the city can not work when they are completely submerged.  Jefferson and Orleans parishes ranked first and second among communities receiving repeat payments for damage claims between 1978 and 1995 under the National Flood Insurance Program.  These two parishes alone accounted for twenty percent of the properties with repeat losses.  They had an average of nearly three claims per property for a total of $308 million (New Orleans Hurricane Risk).

Despite the huge amount of damage caused by Camille, it could have been much worse for Louisiana, especially in Plaquemines Parish (Zebrowski, 2005).  At least some of the forecasting and communication mistakes made during 1957’s Hurricane Audrey were corrected before the Category 5 hurricane hit in a similar area.  Several hundred thousand people would have been trapped and the death toll could have reached the tens of thousands if similar errors had been made (Zebrowski, 2005). 

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

 Trump needs to make his next appearance with an AK-15 in hand and quoting Heston so he can lock up any stragglers in the southern evangelical voting bloc.


Would make for one helluva B movie.


Trump takes on Mexico....This time....its personal....


Mexico.....you're fired !!!!!

straker
straker

53% - "try running a business sometimes"


Did your Business daddy tell you that?

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@fiftythreepercenter @straker

I have no idea what that means.

It's Strakes. He is desperate for attention, and has to copy/paste stuff into a new post every. single. time.

If you feed him, The Terrorists Win.

BuckeyeGa
BuckeyeGa

Clinton’s presidential campaign staff and her former minions at the seemingly politicized State Department have forcefully argued that the email was not classified and that even the intelligence agencies have an internal difference of opinion regarding security classifications

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@JKLtwo Contrary to claims made by Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton — that there were no classified information on her personally owned Internet server — Fox News Channel’s


And you can stop reading right there. 

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@JKLtwo

Too big to jail

I'll grant that's a reasonably clever cover for why you guys' previous predictions of Hils being frog-marched en jumpsuit l'orange were never reality-based.

Wonder how much Luntz was paid to concoct it?

JKLtwo
JKLtwo

@Visual_Cortex @JKLtwo I heard it from a radio call in.  Not sure where they got it from.  It fits really well with the Democrat's version of selective justice.

Peachs
Peachs

@Cupofjoe so now you are blaming your gun fetish on this government?  We had less illegal immigrates in the Obama administration than the Bush so what did Bush do better? What's the difference between the Jihad and a bunch of Texas boys dragging a gay guy behind their car?

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@Visual_Cortex @Peachs @Cupofjoe The answer of course is it isn't


We were way overmedicated and really still are. 


You and I both know he is just spinning it into something..anything...but guns.

Doggone_GA
Doggone_GA

@Hedley_Lammar @Visual_Cortex @Peachs @Cupofjoe It might not be a case of overmedication.  Some people, me for instance, have metabolisms that tend to get "used to" medications and it either takes a different one or more of the same one to get the same effect.  It's one reason I was never attracted to the drug "experiments" of my generation...to big a chance of becoming addicted.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Peachs @Cupofjoe

hmm. It's the second time he's posted this link, and he still hasn't answered my question as to why the ~4x increase in antidepressant prescriptions over the past 20 years is necessarily a bad thing.

I'll ask again:

Why is it necessarily a bad thing, Cuppa?

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Hedley_Lammar @Visual_Cortex @Peachs @Cupofjoe


We were way overmedicated and really still are. 

Kind of a side point, though. I had suggested--and it's nowhere to be found in the article he keeps spamming--that depression seems to have come out of the closet during that time, it's not something so many Americans consider shameful, and I think more folks are willing to recognize symptoms and seek medical help if they believe they have it.

I recognize we have predatory drug companies looking to exploit an American system nicely gamed for them. But an increase in antidepressant use--which Cuppa keeps on referring to, for some bizarre reason--isn't necessarily a Bad Thing. 

Numbers_R_Us
Numbers_R_Us

If you sum up all the people willing to vote for Trump and all those willing to vote for Clinton, that doesn't seem to leave the GOP with much to work with.

Peachs
Peachs

@Numbers_R_Us never had much to start with, smartest thing they did was reroute the south into their yes men, and the dumbest thing the south did was agree to be use by these guys.