Polls: Clinton up; Trump up; congressional GOP headed for trouble

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A batch of new polls — CNN, ABC/Washington Post, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Monmouth — gives us a pretty strong glimpse at the current state of American politics. And it’s probably making the Hillary Clinton campaign pretty happy.

Every poll that asks the question shows that Clinton significantly strengthened her grip on the Democratic nomination with her performance in the recent debate. In the ABC poll, for example, she picked up 12 percentage points and now leads Sen. Bernie Sanders by 31 percentage points.

ABCpoll

That same poll reports that Barack Obama’s job performance is now viewed favorably by 51 percent of American voters, up 11 points since a year ago and the first time since May 2013 that his numbers have topped 50 percent. That’s important in its own right, but it also highlights the gaping chasm between the American mainstream perception of Obama and the GOP’s perception of him as the most reviled politician in the last half century if not the anti-Christ himself.

The more they preach that message, the more they are driven by it, the crazier they make themselves appear.

Speaking of crazy, every new poll shows Donald Trump either maintaining pace or picking up steam among Republican voters, with Ben Carson a close second. The NBC poll, for example, shows Trump with 25 percent of the GOP primary vote, his highest total yet in that poll.

Today, 59 percent of Republican primary voters can now see themselves supporting Trump; just a month ago, 51 percent said they could not.  The man is doing something right. More astounding to me, 74 percent say they could see themselves supporting Carson, a candidate who has failed to educate himself on even the basics of national policy but is paying no price for it.

 

nbcpoll

But Trump of course remains the main story. As Byron York writes, “This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party’s nominee.” As a result, York reports, preparations are underway for “an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party’s likely nominee.”

While that prospect sounds entertaining, other poll numbers cast doubt on how effective that effort is likely to be. Forced to pick between the GOP establishment and Trump, Republican primary voters may very well pick Trump. According to the ABC poll, for example, 71 percent of Americans disapprove of the Republicans in Congress, which is ominous. But 51 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of conservatives also disapprove of congressional Republicans — that’s the deep dissatisfaction that Trump is expertly mining for support.

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As ABC pollsters note:

“Approval ratings for the congressional Republicans are essentially the same as they were a year ago. Approval ratings for the Democrats are up by 5 points, with disapproval down by 8. Obama, as noted, has gained 11 points in approval the past year – a period in which unemployment has dropped and consumer confidence has gained substantially.”

In short, the polls tell us, internal GOP dynamics are pushing congressional Republicans into a bitter confrontation with Obama at a time when their own numbers are abysmal and his have seldom been stronger. That may not sound like a strategy for success, but I’m not sure that success is really what the GOP base is seeking.

As political theorist Isaiah Berlin put it, describing another set of extremists, they’re putting “the satisfaction of their own emotional needs above the attainable goals of the cause which they supported.”

 

 

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690 comments
Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

A bit of actual wisdom from Kyle good enough to share here, emphasis mine:


The “insanity” stops with pretending the time for opposing the debt ceiling is after spending bills have been approved.

ByteMe
ByteMe

@Visual_Cortex It's the "pretending" part that's most important here.  Or maybe they're not pretending and they really are that stupid.  Hard to be sure with some of the nutsacks.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@ByteMe @Visual_Cortex

maybe they're not pretending and they really are that stupid

It was the creeping suspicion of the latter being the case that made listening to the exchange between Ben Carson and Kai Ryssdal so painful.

I get a similar vibe when I hear people talking about means-testing well-off people from receiving Medicare or Social Security benefits, as if there would be any significant savings to be had by cutting off some tiny group of recipients. Yet there was Donald Trump, magnanimously offering not to take SS, live on TeeVee, 24 million people watching, and nobody called this imbecility out. Nobody!

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

Hey, look, someone down below noticed!


these are the same Republicans that had Clinton's emails right after the Benghazi attack happened and only realized that she had her own private email server right when it was time to begin campaigning for the 2016 election.


now if Jay, or Kyle (both of whom I've pointed this out to, repeatedly) only knew someone in the corporate media who could maybe ask one or three of the GOPers about this? Maybe?

I know I harp on this all the time in here and it's a pet peeve, and maybe it's not as important as I imagine, but I'm still astonished that nobody ever seems to point out the obvious--that Clinton was sending out emails as SoS to lots of people under a "clintonemail.com" domain, and yet nobody noticed at the time? Really?

If this was some part of a Crime of the Century, don't any of these conserva-sleuths need to own up that at minimum, they are really, really terrible at sleuthing?

ByteMe
ByteMe

@Visual_Cortex People like Drudge long ago figured out that there was more profit in making sure the outrage was turned up to 11 over anything made up instead of finding real facts or acknowledging what everyone else already understands.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@ByteMe @Visual_Cortex

Ok, fine, Drudgey-poo gotta Drugey-poo.

But where are the freaking DEMOCRATS on this? Why aren't they pointing fingers and laughing at the bleedin'-obvious stupidity in their midst? Why doesn't some corporate media hack make some hay, at minimum?

Why are all these people so very Terrible At Their Jerbs?

ByteMe
ByteMe

@Visual_Cortex Because reality (real reality, not producer-managed reality shows) is not good TV.  Pointing out facts doesn't change the minds of people who are predisposed to being "outrage monsters" as I call them... people who have other conditions that make them susceptible to having their emotions easily manipulated.  But giving them something to be outraged by?  That's eyeballs for selling them tampons!

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@ByteMe @Visual_Cortex

This is kind of my point. I believe that outrage could, indeed, be ginned up by forcefully telling Americans that the evidence for this "misdeed" was right in front of their eyes all along and that they were too stupid to notice.


Peachs
Peachs

Paul Ryan running for Speaker, should be interesting.  The problem with leadership is you have to lead and kicking some rear is part of that, and the Republican Party is a visual of individual freedom whether that freedom is good for the whole or not.  In other words you have to tell some brain dead ego maniac no, who got elected moving lines around to represent other brain dead bigots who don't want any group activities yet want to have a political party or a church where they can come in with a set of ideas and leave with those same set of ideas which is really no ideas at all. Good luck Paul i will enjoy watching this one!

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

The wisdom of our Doom, sometime around Drunk O'Clock:


I've always wondered why the busybodys on the kook left care if a community of like minded people want to live together. Freedom of association. Why anyone would want to move in and live around people that don't like them is beyond me. Let the racists and separatists have their own little slice of Nazi land if they want to. Aint no skin off anybody else's nose. 


So in Doom-world, bans on housing discrimination based on race is "kook left" stuff.

(Fun fact--I did a little cursory Googling to see how the radical notion of laws banning racial discrimination polls with the public, but given the difficulty in finding anything relevant, it appears that they don't even bother to ask the question any more. FWIW, support for laws banning such discrimination against LGBT folk seems to be running around 70 percent.)


ByteMe
ByteMe

@Visual_Cortex But being a busybody about a woman's right to choose how to handle her pregnancy... that's a-ok with him.

Kamchak
Kamchak

Making a correlation between the popularity of the Obama administration's foreign policy and the proficiency of 8th graders at geography?

That's desperation.

Just sayin'.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Kamchak

Did you notice that the proficiency hadn't improved since 1994? 

Obviously Newt Gingrich's Contract On America is to blame for this.

Peachs
Peachs

@Visual_Cortex @Kamchak Newt Gingrich has made a mockery of government.  He has made common minds think they can redesign the constitution because they don't like taking out the garbage.  He does it with a smirk like some kids on the back row but then the teacher starts acting like the kid on the back row in Congress and not like the teacher. This is Gringrich's legacy. 

breckenridge
breckenridge

"Planned Parenthood promotes all sorts of perverted things You know anytime you break down God's principles, you're going to get in trouble but this is horrible. What Planned Parenthood does to young women is lie to them about what this birth control pill will do, encourage them to have sex with multiple partners which is almost like rape and, you know, they've also gotten into much more perverted things now."  Carol Everett, anti-Planned Parenthood activist, Wall Builders radio show, 10-19-2015

Lol.   Pull that corncob out of your arse hose monkey.



td1234
td1234

Well no wonder people support the Obama foreign policies. 


"(CNSNews.com) –Seventy-three percent of American eighth graders tested below the proficiency level in geography last year, according to areport to Congress by the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

Analyzing nationally representative test data from the U.S. Department of Education, GAO found that only 27 percent of eighth graders nationwide scored at either the proficient (24%) or advanced (3%) level on standardized geography tests in 2014.

Nearly half (48%) exhibited only partial mastery of the subject, and a quarter (25%) scored below basic competency on the geography tests.

The 2014 results showed virtually no improvement since 1994, when 4 percent of eighth graders tested at the advanced level, 24 percent at the proficient level, 43 percent at the basic level, and 29 percent were below basic competency, the GAO reported, even as Americans become increasingly dependent on location-based technologies such as GPS (global positioning system).

Doom Classical liberal
Doom Classical liberal

Hilarious. Kooks and their social engineering. Don't like the results of a school election? Just ignore the results if you don't like em because it doesn't give the results that a kook left social engineer thinks it should give. These folks get nuttier every day. 


"In a democracy, the people get the government they deserve. But Everett Middle School in San Francisco is not exactly a democracy, and Principal Lena Van Haren withheld publication of the results of a student council election because she didn’t like the outcome—too many of the winners were white.

The school is roughly 80 percent students of color, but the election results didn’t reflect the school’s diversity, according to KTVU:"


https://reason.com/blog/2015/10/20/school-principal-withheld-student-counci

Doom Classical liberal
Doom Classical liberal

You aint got a stalker till ya got someone trying to zero in on who you are and where you live and work. Then and only then do you have not only a real stalker, but a damn creepy a$$ one at that. 


"Diversity Insurance" - Winder, GA. 


BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


C

R

E

E

P

Y

!

Doom Classical liberal
Doom Classical liberal

"I'm no scientist,...."


Neither am I. No problemo though. I just get my global climatology news and reports from the various Bookmanbot climatology experts. Word of late is that this summer could inch up a hundredth of a degree. Skeery stuff. 

Kamchak
Kamchak

I got a stalker

I got a stalker

It's my birthday 

It's my birthday...

ByteMe
ByteMe

Biden's looking to be the only 16-year VP in history.

Philo_Farnsworth
Philo_Farnsworth

That's what happens to Sarah stalking Philo. But he reciprocates.

Doom Classical liberal
Doom Classical liberal

@Philo_Farnsworth


She may stalk you. But I think she intimidates the hell outta  proglodyte men. A woman who hunts bear and wolves probably skeers the crap outta the little fellers. 

KUTGF
KUTGF

Coincidental to the rejoicing, we also learned that a splinter faction of idiot racist clones (possibly composed of genetic material from the Death Star’s trash-compacter worm grafted onto human DNA) had launched a Twitter effort to “#BoycottStarWarsVII”. But they have a really good reason! There are too many dusky-hued people in the movie, you see, and so it’s “promoting white genocide.” This came as quite a surprise to us, as we weren’t even aware that Coruscant had a chapter of the League of the South.
Read more at http://wonkette.com/595107/white-power-morans-jews-stoled-our-american-star-wars-and-gived-it-to-the-blacks#wPJE4s4rsvFDzoD3.99

_________

Oh nooooes.....even in the future whites will still be claiming threats to white power.

Kamchak
Kamchak

OH NOES !

IT'S THE HOARSE MOUTH FALLACY !

Oh wait, maybe it's horse face fallacy...

No, horse farce fallacy?

Fierce horse fallacy...

Cupofjoe
Cupofjoe

Its always wise to check in on a minor transgression that "may have" happened

Agreed-  a drudge wanna wanna wanna wannabe-  not much value add in bored small minded folks trolling and re posting threads about shoe sizes and pizza orders.

 

Cupofjoe
Cupofjoe

Sweetie

you use that dumb assery line a lot-  you are simply a joke looking for a crowd

KUTGF
KUTGF

@Cupofjoe sweetie, no matter how far you shove your head in, you'll never make it as a smart arse. 

Cupofjoe
Cupofjoe

I work to hard to keep up with all things political but anything named the "Freedom Party" should line up next to the Tea Party and take a cruise missile or two for the team.  How about the "We work for the all Americans" or at least the "Whiskey and Sports" party.

ByteMe
ByteMe

@Cupofjoe There's a team waiting for a cruise missile to hit them?  Well, can we at least watch from a safe distance?

Kamchak
Kamchak

OH NOES ! I HAVE A STALKER !

Oh, wait.

Having a stalker is just sooooooooooooooooo faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaabulously fashionable.

Anybody who is part of the in crowd has a stalker.

Philo_Farnsworth
Philo_Farnsworth

I think Sarah has been stalking me.

But I encourage that...

St Simons he-ne-ha
St Simons he-ne-ha

I'm no scientist, but 51 appears to be higher than 23, even 'dynamically scored'

Michael B
Michael B

 

The woman reveals two things:  her prejudice and her ignorance.

The first man was from Africa, and everyone has some African DNA.  Even the Europeans who moved away from the equator and lost some melatonin and became whiter.  Imagine the shock of the African American kids who find out they might be up to 50% European.

The woman's prejudice and the lack of understanding of the origin and evolution of man is depressing and the program should undertake the education of its viewers.  This is disgusting.

Kamchak
Kamchak

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2015/10/20/what-paul-ryan-wants-in-order-to-run-for-speaker/

What Paul Ryan wants in order to run for speaker

  1. Ryan wants the entire House GOP to unite behind him — from the arch-conservative House Freedom Caucus that helped force Boehner out, to the moderate Tuesday Group.
  2. Ryan wants changes to House rules, agreed to by consensus, a key Freedom Caucus demand. But one of the rule changes Ryan specifically wants is to remove the “motion to vacate the chair,” a procedural gambit to knock the speaker out that some conservatives held over Boehner’s head. The rules changes need “to include fixes that ensure we do not face constant leadership challenges and crises,” he told reporters.
  3. Ryan wants to maintain his time at home with his family. He said he would spend less time on the road (translation: raising money) than previous speakers, “but I pledge to make up for it with more time communicating our vision, our message.