How the GOP’s ‘SEC primary’ could backfire come 2016

Republican_Debate_September_2016_AP_img

It seemed a fine idea at the time. And maybe it is, if you like the idea of Donald Trump as the GOP nominee.

When Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp proposed the so-called “SEC primary,” with as many Southern states as possible holding their presidential primaries on the same date, he argued that it would give the South more influence and ensure that presidential candidates pay more attention to the region. With Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia joining Georgia in holding March 1 primaries, and with GOP candidates flocking to the region, that part of the plan appears to be working.

“It is now clear that the road to the White House runs through the South,” Kemp proudly proclaimed, with Randy Evans, a Republican National Committee member from Atlanta, predicting that this new Super Tuesday could actually end up deciding the GOP nominee.

Think about that for a moment. The goal of the SEC primary is to help to produce a GOP candidate more amenable to the South and more attuned to Southern conservative issues. Gun control, “religious liberty,” things like that. OK, but the South is a region that the party already dominates anyway. If the GOP wants to elect a president, it needs a candidate who can win swing states, not add another five percentage points to the margin in states it would already win easily.

In short, to the degree the SEC primary is effective, it makes it less likely that Republicans will get a Mitt Romney or John McCain as its nominee. I know that’s an outcome that many in the GOP base would applaud, but in practical terms they’re choosing emotional gratification over smart political strategy.

For example, three 2016 “SEC primary” states held competitive primaries in 2012 before the GOP nomination was decided. Newt Gingrich won Georgia easily; Rick Santorum won Alabama and Tennessee easily. If your goal is to give candidates like that a boost toward the GOP nomination, I’m not sure you’ve helped your party’s chances of winning come November. The SEC title is not the national title.

Creation of the SEC primary dovetails with a separate effort by the Republican National Committee to significantly compress its primary schedule. In the aftermath of Romney’s loss, RNC officials came to the conclusion that he had been hurt by an extended primary fight. He didn’t clinch until the end of May, and the RNC wanted the issue settled more quickly.

Over the protests of conservatives, they also wanted to “rig” the system in favor of an establishment candidate. Compressing the schedule meant candidates had to compete in a large number of states in a very short time frame, giving an advantage to someone who had a lot of money and could buy ads in all those states, all at once.**

As it turns out, though, it might also favor a candidate with high name recognition who can generate tons of free national media.

As a result of that compression, in the short two-week period between March 1 and March 15, the Republican Party will hold primaries or caucuses in a remarkable 25 states, compared to 16 states in that same period in 2012. The “SEC primary” will play a critical role in that period, electing more than a thousand delegates to the GOP convention. Given the volatility of the GOP electorate, it’s easy to imagine a candidate coming out of those early states with so much momentum that by March 15, the nominee is all but elected, before the GOP really has time to think it over.

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** Mike Murphy, head of the Jeb Bush SuperPAC Right to Rise, explained it candidly in a recent interview with Bloomberg:

“We see Feb. 1 to March 15, 45 days, as our period to seize the nomination and get in front—and there are a lot of states and a lot of congressional districts and a lot of targeting to that. One of the reasons we’ve worked so hard and Jeb, frankly, has inspired so many people to donate to us is so we have the resources to pursue that campaign. Most of these other guys are all running on spec. We’re at a point now where we’re significantly funded for those 45 days, cash in the bank today. Nobody else is in that situation in this race. Nobody’s close.

Reader Comments 0

596 comments
Kamchak
Kamchak

Rare Saturday SHEETZ!

gotalife
gotalife

trump is losing because women know he is a fraud.


carson is on a book tour staying out of politics so he takes the lead. New trick.


Hillary is way ahead and dems just have three running.


Country is in great shape.


Why screw that up? No reason to.


I get to vote against vitter today and hope he loses .

Kamchak
Kamchak

How The Wingnut Freedom Caucus Took Congress Hostage: A Wonksplainer

Seriously, just think of the worst stances that “normal” GOP congresscritters have, throw in an ideological opposition to ever compromising on anything, sprinkle on some anti-government rhetoric, then go eight steps further right, and you have the Freedom Caucus.

This group is also demanding more power for “rank and file” members of the House. You know, the backbenchers who whine about how their six-figure salaries are too small. Or the newbies who got elected, like, yesterday and think they should have a seat at the Big Boys table immediately.

The Freedom Caucus is uninterested in the traditions of Congress, which, granted, haven’t worked perfectly, but pretty damn well for most of our history. They are uninterested in learning the rules of the House, of working up from a junior member on a committee to a leadership position. They want ALL the goodies NOW, without earning them.

They promised they would change Washington. Sadly, they have. They made an acrimonious, toxic situation EVEN WORSE. They saw a gridlocked, partisan atmosphere and decided to squat and drop a deuce right in the middle of the floor.

And then they blame Obama for not cleaning up the mess.

Kamchak
Kamchak

@td1234 

If I said dismissed then it was a mistake.

"If"? 

"If'" doesn't enter into it.

Let's go to the WABAC machine, shall we? 

No surprise at all that the Obama Justice department will quietly dismiss the charges to protect the Obama legacy

TBS
TBS

@Kamchak @td1234


"quietly dismiss......"

As if charges had already been levied. But now in top secret fashion in the middle of the night the charges will disappear. 

Kamchak
Kamchak

Fox News Itself Reported That The Benghazi Attack Was Triggered By Anti-Islam Video

Greta Van Susteren: "Both Attacks Were Triggered By A Movie Produced In The United States That Protesters Say Is Anti-Muslim." On the September 11, 2012 edition of Fox News' On the Record with Greta Van Susteren, Van Susteren twice repeated an Associated Press story that cited an anti-Islam video as a trigger for the Benghazi attack

Fox's Bret Baier: "There Was ... Protest Over The Video At The U.S. Consulate In Benghazi." On the September 11, 2012 edition of Fox News' Special Report with Bret Baier, Baier reported that there was a "protest over the video" in Benghazi

Fox's Dana Perino: "An American Citizen Died ... It Is Happening Across The Middle East Because Of A Video That Was Produced In The United States." On the September 11, 2012 edition of Fox News' Hannity, Fox host Dana Perino explained that there were many protests occurring throughout the Middle East and North Africa over the anti-Islam video, and blamed a protest over the video for the death of Americans in Benghazi

'TUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUBERS !

Kamchak
Kamchak

@JohnnyReb 

  a president and secretary of state who blatantly lie

Yellow cake uranium from Niger says, "What?"

td1234
td1234

@TBS Whitewater, travelgate, Lying in a deposition about what happened in the oral office. 


Says what

td1234
td1234

Either the thugs run wild or the good citizens are safe in their communities. Which one does the progressives support? 


"FBI director James Comey lent credence to a controversial theory Friday when he said during a speech in Chicago that violent crime has spiked in many big U.S. cities this year because police officers are worried that performing their policing duties puts them at risk of being accused of a crime themselves.

“I don’t know whether that explains it entirely, but I do have a strong sense that some part of the explanation is a chill wind that has blown through American law enforcement over the last year,” Comey said at a forum held at the University of Chicago Law School, according to news reports.

Violent crime — including homicides — have increased dramatically in many large cities, Comey said, pointing to Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Washington and Baltimore by name.

The cause of the spike is the center of intense debate. Some have dubbed the phenomenon the “Ferguson effect” — a reference to the fatal police-involved shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo. on Aug. 9, 2014. The shooting sparked mass protests and violence in the St. Louis suburb.



Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/23/fbi-director-ties-spike-in-urban-crime-to-cops-fear-of-doing-their-jobs/#ixzz3pUtjrKob

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

@td1234 - the rise in crime due to police backing off lays clearly at the feet of Obama.

The Justice Department threatened police departments and gave them guidelines.

We are not winning the war in Afghanistan due to Obama's guidelines, and we are now losing the crime war here because of his guidelines.

The number of Americans who are so politically stupid is breathtaking.

td1234
td1234

@JohnnyReb It just more explains of the problems with progressives in general. They do not understand the concept that actions have consequences. 

Normd
Normd

@td1234 


Having a police officer do his duty without the shoot first mentality is NOT a bad thing.

Normd
Normd

@td1234 @JohnnyReb 


Actions have consequences...yeah, tell that to the Benghazi Committee.  They just gave Hillary the White House...

BuckeyeGa
BuckeyeGa

@td1234 This is from the same article referenced in daily caller..but somehow the daily caller didn't mention in their article..


Mr. Comey’s remarks caught officials by surprise at the Justice Department, where his views are not shared at the top levels. Holding the police accountable for civil rights violations has been a top priority at the department in recent years, and some senior officials do not believe that scrutiny of police officers has led to an increase in crime. While the department had no immediate comment on Friday, several officials privately fumed at Mr. Comey’s suggestion.

Among the nation’s law enforcement officials, there is sharp disagreement over whether there is any credence to the so-called Ferguson effect, which refers to the protests that erupted in the summer of 2014 in Ferguson, Mo., over a police shooting.

In Oakland, Calif., for example, homicides are on the rise after two years of decline. But shootings are down, and the overall crime rate is about the same, said Oakland’s police chief, Sean Whent. “Our officers are very, very sensitive to the climate right now, but I haven’t seen any evidence to say our officers aren’t doing their jobs,” Chief Whent said.

In Washington, homicides are also up, but violent crime and crime over all are down, said Lt. Sean Conboy, a police spokesman. “Trying to correlate it to a Ferguson effect, I don’t believe is appropriate,” Lieutenant Conboy said.

After civil rights leaders and the Justice Department accused the Seattle Police Department of discriminatory policing and excessive force, the number of officer-instigated stops declined and crime ticked upward, said Kathleen O’Toole, the police chief.

Chief O’Toole said it was up to police leaders to insist on reversing that trend. The critiques made the department better, she said. Crime is down this year, and her city has hosted police officials from places such as Baltimore wanting to understand why.

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

Are hard core Democrats Americans?

Yes they are on paper.

Yes they say they are.

But with their willingness to accept, in many cases endorse and promote, a president and secretary of state who blatantly lie in such a deplorable manner to further their personal political ambitions it is difficult to impossible for Dems to fit with -

Truth, Justice and the American Way. 

td1234
td1234

@TBS No charges were ever filed. If I said dismissed then it was a mistake. The point is the same but coming from a person that believes businessmen abused their investment property for their own jollies or something would not really understand. 

TBS
TBS

@JohnnyReb


How cute............ Reb typed all that to say he just watched a Superman cartoon.


td1234
td1234

@TBS I think Reb typed all of that to make a very valid point. 

TBS
TBS

@td1234 @TBS


Were you able to come up with the charges you claimed were dismissed relating to the IRS issue? 

I'm sure you didn't forget your own words from just a day ago

TBS
TBS

@td1234 @TBS


There is no if you said it.  You know you said then when asked twice yesterday you pulled a Houdini 

So you lied.......You sure make a lot of "mistakes".......  Coincidence?  Not hardly

Got it

Next

Have a great day

TBS
TBS

@JohnnyReb @TBS @td1234


bwhahahahhahah


Reb didn't get what he wanted so he whines.

Just another day for you


peace

td1234
td1234

@TBS No, yesterday I was making money closing yet another deal so the importance of answering progressives BS took a backseat to putting money into my pocket. 


But it is typical from someone that does not have a clue about business practices and what it takes to maximize profit. 

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

@TBS @td1234 - the failure of Justice to indict over the IRS targeting is yet more evidence of Justice having been politicized by the administration.

The blindfolded lady is crying.

breckenridge
breckenridge

 After canceling all Medicaid contracts with Planned Parenthood affiliates this past Monday, Texas authorities have now raided Planned Parenthood locations in San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas. Investigators are apparently looking for any documents or records related to patients who have donated fetal tissue at any point in the past five years. 

Texas is dedicated to shutting down as many PP clinics as they can, and they've had some good success in that endeavor.  However, even before the anti-PP campaign began, Texas had the 2nd highest teen birth rate in the nation, and led the nation in teen births annually.  But the Bible-thumping stupids don't give a chit about that.  If logic were involved in their thinking, then they wouldn't be stupids.

 

breckenridge
breckenridge

In an interview with conservative talk radio host Dana Loesch yesterday, Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson repeated his plan to have the federal government monitor college campuses for “extreme bias,” explaining that he would have “very strict guidelines” that would ensure that his plan wouldn’t hurt conservatives.

 

“What I would do is I would solicit examples of extreme bias and I would use those as the basis for helping to determine which places need to have their federal funding cut,” he said. 

And this fruitcake is near the top of GOP pack? Yikes!

ByteMe
ByteMe

@Kamchak There's a family who lives on the floor just below him in Trump Tower whose surname is "Hispanics".


Old stolen joke.

foo2u
foo2u

Really it should be called the KKK primary...

Derp...

Eye wonder
Eye wonder

Dude is oilier than Ted Cruz. An impressive accomplishment, when you think about it.

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

@Normd 

It's the difference between private and public, Normd.

In a 7-2 decision written by Justice Harry Blackmun (who was chosen because of his prior experience as counsel to the Mayo Clinic), the Court ruled that the Texas statute violated Jane Roe's constitutional right to privacy. The Court argued that the Constitution's First, Fourth, Ninth, and Fourteenth Amendments protect an individual's "zone of privacy" against state laws and cited past cases ruling that marriage, contraception, and child rearing are activities covered in this "zone of privacy." The Court then argued that the "zone of privacy" was "broad enough to encompass a woman's decision whether or not to terminate her pregnancy." This decision involved myriad physical, psychological, and economic stresses a pregnant woman must face.

The federal government should never have been allowed to enter that "zone of privacy". In essence, they adopted the baby for their own personal use.

When they did, it became a public matter.


Normd
Normd

@FIGMO2 @Normd 


Are you telling me that if Planned Parenthood was privatized, everything would be OK?

Kamchak
Kamchak

OH NOES !

I HAVE A "LIKE" STALKER !

Wait a minute. It is just sooooooooooooooooo faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaabulously fashionable to have a stalker.

All the Kool Kidz have stalkers and I want soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much to be a Kool Kid.

Gmare
Gmare

GREAT job by Rachel & HRC!

td1234
td1234

@Gmare Watched by less than 500,000 people in the country. 

Gmare
Gmare

How does one find that out, please? Re the #, that's about 500,000 voters for her! :)

td1234
td1234

@Gmare Look at the Nelson ratings for her show. Her average viewers are between 300,000 and 700,000 per night. The ratings will be out next week for Friday. 


You are correct that those will all be votes for her but more than likely they were votes for her before the interview. 

td1234
td1234

@honested We shall see. It is way to early to make any predictions. I will say I do not see anyway she can keep the Obama coalition together in the excited turnout numbers that he did. 

OldEngineer
OldEngineer

@Gmare He counted them - surely he wouldn't just make stuff up, right?

honested
honested

@td1234 @Gmare 

tiny dog,

Just stand in front of the mirror and practice  .......

Madame President....

Even if you don't like her, America will be much, much better for her efforts.

Gmare
Gmare

I "grew up"with Ricky Nelson. :(