At this point, the Jeb campaign is among the walking dead

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I never thought I’d be writing this so early in the process, still three-plus months away from the first votes being cast, but … Jeb Bush is toast.

And not just toast, but burnt toast. Black-charred toast that has been sitting in the toaster so long it has gotten cold and brittle, so that no amount of butter or jam can render it edible.

I don’t say that to be mean. It’s simply true. He’s at 5 percent in the most recent Iowa poll. He was never expected to do great there, but 5 percent? In supposedly more friendly New Hampshire, after a month of TV advertising, he’s at 9 percent. In his home state of Florida he’s also at 9 percent. Those are the voters who know him best, and his eight-year tenure as Florida governor was supposed to serve as his national sales model for competent, conservative governance. Yet even among the home folk he’s pulling less than half the support of Donald Trump and Ben Carson and is six points behind former protege Marco Rubio.

Bad as they are, those numbers by themselves do not doom his campaign. It’s rare, but other candidates have survived numbers that poor by making the necessary adjustments and turning things around. Hoping to pull off a similar miracle,  the Bush campaign last week announced layoffs, cutbacks and changes in strategy, and over the weekend Bush donors and longtime family supporters gathered in Houston in preparation for making a fresh start.

The problem is that Jeb has no real room to grow. Maybe I’ll be proved wrong about this, but I look at the GOP landscape and ask myself: “Where’s he going to get more votes? Where’s the untapped reservoir of support that he needs to turn this around?” After poring over polling results and crosstabs in the last few weeks, I can’t find even a hint of it.

In Iowa, for example, those wanting Jeb to drop out of the race altogether outnumber those who support him by a four-to-one ratio. And in a new AP national poll released today, 77 percent of Republican primary voters say they prefer a nominee from outside the system; just 22 percent want someone who knows Washington and can get things done in the current system.  Jeb has tried mightily to align himself with that 77 percent, but someone with the last name of Bush simply cannot pose as an outsider with any degree of credibility, even at Halloween.

I can’t help but feel a small twinge of sympathy, though. When a supposedly front-running candidacy implodes, you can usually blame serious mistakes in strategy, organization or implementation. That hasn’t been the case with Bush. His people have run a highly professional, competent campaign, but he has run into two immutable truths beyond his control:

  1. He cannot change his basic nature. “It took me 62 years to be who I am, and it’s impossible to play like I’m someone who I’m not,” as he put it recently. “I’m going to be who I am.” That’s fine, but …
  2. He also cannot change the angry, resentful nature of the 2016 Republican electorate. It too is pretty much set in stone, and what it demands from its nominee, an earnest, introverted Bush cannot credibly provide.

So … toast.

Reader Comments 0

666 comments
Mick11
Mick11

It's nice to see donald trump neutering jeb?, a long time coming... he really was a terrible governor who initiated the testing regime and made millions for his testing cronies, florida is a scandal with invalid and unreliable testing, thanks jebby or rather thanks donald for exposing jeb for the low wattage terrible idea's man that he is...no more bush, pretty please...

straker
straker

53% - "it has already been proven"


So?


Do you think those at the committee knew this?


If so, they did not charge her with any wrongdoing.

stogiefogey
stogiefogey

Yep, first among Jeb's various challenges is his last name. He might be the greatest guy in the world, a candidate for sainthood even, but at the end of the day he's tainted by the toxic overhang of the idiot older brother.

Barbara was right...no more Bushes.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

How do you run for President when your last name is the kiss of death?  You use your first name only, JEB!

fiftythreepercenter
fiftythreepercenter

The libbies here can't figure out the difference between "sending and receiving emails MARKED classified" and "sending and receiving classified information".  What Hillary said was she didn't send or receive any emails MARKED classified, but it has already been proven there were email transmissions to and from her personal server with classified information in them.  


Now, libbies, If Hillary fires up an email on her private server with classified information in it, who exactly do you clowns think was going to MARK it classified?  


Are you really that dumb or are you hoping nobody is paying attention to the difference?

straker
straker

53%


I don't think any of the 14, 15, or is it 16 Republican hopefuls could beat Hillary if the election were held tomorrow.


But, its actually more than a year away. In truth, its impossible to say exactly what will happen.


The media, to get and keep viewers, breathlessly tell us about each new poll as if we all were going to vote right away.


In truth, for now, its anybody's election.

bu2
bu2

@straker

O'Malley doesn't have a chance.


Neither do Jindal, Graham, Santorum and 3 or 4 other Republicans.


But there are a lot of things that could happen.

Wascatlady
Wascatlady

It is a little hard to feel sorry for Jeb! since he really is NOT the dullest of the bunch.

straker
straker

53%


Some people, both Republican and Democratic, will claim victory before all the results are in.


Or, did you think only Democrats could do that?

fiftythreepercenter
fiftythreepercenter

@straker I think it's a bit foolish for anybody to be doing that a full year before the election, but read down through the posts and there's a definite theme developing among the libbies here...

straker
straker

Down


I asked for your EVIDENCE, not your opinion.



DownInAlbany
DownInAlbany

@straker Actually, there wasn't a "?" anywhere in your post.

I'm sure she was asked that question, over and over and over, in those endless hearings.

I suppose that you have EVIDENCE to support your opinion?

Better trolls.

Please

fiftythreepercenter
fiftythreepercenter

"I already said no matter how often it's explained you don't get it."


And I assume no matter how many times I ask the question, you won't answer it.  What does it being a national or a local election have to do with the fact you libbies declared yourselves victors before the last election and got your clocks cleaned?  Are you saying you weren't smart enough to realize it was a local election last time before you proclaimed victory just a bit prematurely?  I certainly won't argue with you if that's the case.

CherokeeCounty
CherokeeCounty

Plagiarism:


  • to steal and pass off (the ideas or words of another) as one's own
  • to use (another's production) without crediting the source

  • Looking at you, td.

    straker
    straker

    Down - "and the libs believe it"


    I'm sure she was asked that question, over and over and over, in those endless hearings.


    Of course, if you have HARD evidence she actually send and received classified info, then call the FBI and the nearest Republican office immediately.


    Let us know that they say.

    BabyCakesATL
    BabyCakesATL

    @straker Just another example of FEAR (False Evidence Appearing Real).  They got nuthin!!

    DownInAlbany
    DownInAlbany

    @straker Come on, straker.  I give you more credit.  IF she NEVER sent/received classified info via email, that's what she would have said, huh?

    Do you folks actually believe that in this day and time that she didn't use email extensively to do her job...well, you've just got your head buried I the sand.

    It defies all logic.

    DownInAlbany
    DownInAlbany

    Hillary claims NEVER sent or received classified info on her personal email server.

    She didn't have a State Department email address.

    I suppose that means that she NEVER sent or received classified info.

    Period.

    And, the libs believe it!

    Nick_Danger
    Nick_Danger

    @DownInAlbany 

    I suppose that you suppose incorrectly about what "libs" suppose. 

    Try supposing something else - something that makes the world better.

    :>)

    CherokeeCounty
    CherokeeCounty

    @DownInAlbany @KUTGF 

    Pretty much, yeah.

    What's weird is that you - and the idiot Repubs on the committee - seem to think that they only way she communicated is via email.

    KUTGF
    KUTGF

    @DownInAlbany Sweetie, I know this is hard for you.  But the most likely case is that secure information would be transmitted by other means.  Secure phone (she had one even at her home), secured cable or by her aides. 

    DS
    DS

    @KUTGF @DownInAlbany We don't have to guess---that's what she wrote in her book: secret info is/was transmitted by other means. Email used for routine stuff.

    fiftythreepercenter
    fiftythreepercenter

    "Observation:  Republican frontrunners,  one a loud narcissist who attacks others, one a quiet, soft-spoken man who doesn't speak I'll of others.  Makes one think Republicans are pretty evenly split in what appeals to conservatives. "


    Meanwhile, over at D headquarters, it's between an old white socialist and an old white liar.  Great choices you're putting up there, libbies.

    fiftythreepercenter
    fiftythreepercenter

    "The laugh will be on you since she's probably going to win. That doesn't say much for the Republican candidates."


    Thanks for your input, but I'd prefer to wait for the actual election before giving her the keys to the WH. 


    You libbies are a hoot with this routine.  Remember you said the same thing before you got your clocks cleaned in the 2014 election.  Might not want to start counting those chickens quite yet....

    ByteMe
    ByteMe

    @Paul42 A troll's gotta troll troll troll troll troll....

    Paul42
    Paul42

    @fiftythreepercenter


    No matter how many times it's explained to you, you just can't seem to understand the difference between national and local elections.

    DownInAlbany
    DownInAlbany

    Everyday Americans need a champion.  I want to be that champion.

    Now, for the small sum of $2700, you can have dinner with me and I'll give you an opportunity to write a larger check.

    td1234
    td1234

    "Monday on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” Patricia Smith, mother of Sean Smith, one of the four men killed in the 2012 terror attack in Benghazi, got very emotional, fighting back tears.

    In discussing Hillary Clinton’s testimony last week to the House Benghazi Committee, Smith said,”I watched every minute … Hillary didn’t answer the questions. I’m still waiting, oh, my main—one of the main questions, if the ambassador cabled that he needed more people, more security—this cable, according to Hillary, it did not reach her. Who did it reach and what was done? So that my son wouldn’t be murdered like he was? This has never been answered. If this was Hillary’s department, she should have known what was going on, yet she claims she didn’t and my son died along with the ambassador and two other wonderful people. I would like an answer to this.”

    She continued, “I think they should have covered his back. All of those people that were there, every one of them that worked for our government—worked for our government because they wanted to. They wanted to do the right thing and they did what they were supposed to, knowing that our government would have their back. They did not. And I’m still waiting for an explanation as to why my son died, the contractors that were there was told that they were told to stand down three times. Hillary has denied this. I don’t know why. She won’t give me an explanation. They won’t tell me why this happened, but nobody came to help him. And there were people that were available. The guys from the security department was ready to go, they were told to stand down and they finally went on their own. They said they could have saved the ambassador’s life and my son’s life if they would have been allowed to go. Now, please tell me why weren’t they allowed to go?”

    Smith added, “It would take nine hours for this thing to be over, during that time, somebody should be able to go there and help. Even a drone, and I understand there was a drone. They were watching. What were they watching if nothing was happening?”

    DownInAlbany
    DownInAlbany

    @td1234 Bookman and his parrots will continue with their, "It's OVAH, meme."

    InTheMiddle2
    InTheMiddle2

    It really does not matter how often or how much the regular ideologues deflect for Hillary. None of it will matter on election day.

    Hedley_Lammar
    Hedley_Lammar

    @ByteMe @InTheMiddle2  It really does not matter how often or how much the regular ideologues deflect for Hillary. None of it will matter on election day.


    Nor does it matter how many phony scandals are between now and then either.



    InTheMiddle2
    InTheMiddle2

    @ByteMe @InTheMiddle2 Yep..Very true. Those that lover Hillary are not going to change their minds regardless of any investigation or outcome and same with those that hate her. This is really all just en execise in "nanny nanny boo boo" politics

    InTheMiddle2
    InTheMiddle2

    @Hedley_Lammar @ByteMe @InTheMiddle2 Nope....none of it. Hillary has bigger problems than any scandals. For those of us the remember Bill's first campaign also remember how he almost lost until his staff finally got Hillary to shut up and stand in the back ground.

    ByteMe
    ByteMe

    @InTheMiddle2 For those of us the remember Bill's first campaign also remember how he almost lost until his staff finally got Hillary to shut up and stand in the back ground.

    Amazing what 25 years does for someone, huh?

    ByteMe
    ByteMe

    @JKLtwo Only thing we expect is that they're going to do things that royally piss you off.  And we're good with that, thanks.

    JohnnyReb
    JohnnyReb

    @Hedley_Lammar @ByteMe @InTheMiddle2 - so Hillary telling the Egyptian ambassador on 9/12 the attack was not from a video protest, then later speaking over the fallen's caskets stating it was from the video, is not a scandal?