Is the Donald Trump ceiling now the GOP nomination?

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“I’ve been saying for two weeks now, three weeks, that we’ve seen peak Trump. I really thought he would plateau and start to fade. I was certainly wrong for the past two weeks, when he was still moving up in the polls, but I kinda really do think now that we’ve seen peak Trump.”

Bill Kristol, Aug. 6, 2015

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“Since that Sept. 16 debate, as measured by the RealClearPolitics polling average, Mr. Trump has lost about a quarter of his support, down to 23 percent from 30 percent on the eve of the debate. In this week’s Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, he is at 21 percent. It’s not going to get better. The Trump numbers are going to drift sideways, or fall.”

Daniel Henninger, Wall Street Journal, Sept. 30, 2015

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“I have to tell you, this was an amazing debate performance (by Trump). Amazing not because it was effective, but amazing because I saw the destruction of a presidential campaign over those two hours. It really was remarkable.”

— Frank Luntz, Aug. 7, 2015, after a GOP debate in which Trump insulted Fox anchor Megyn Kelly and refused to refrain from an independent run

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“No one — with the possible exception of Donald Trump — believes that Trump is going to be the 2016 GOP presidential nominee.  The 18 percent that Trump is drawing in the poll average at Real Clear Politics is probably pretty close to his ceiling.”

— Jay Bookman, AJC, July 22, 2015

 

Ahem. Everytime you think Trump has hit his ceiling, he adds another story to the building. At this rate his ceiling may be the GOP nomination.

In a new Monmouth University poll released Monday, the first national poll conducted after his remarks on banning Muslims, Donald Trump pulled 41 percent of the vote, 13 percentage points higher than in October. Ted Cruz ranks second at 14 percent, with Marco Rubio (10 percent) and Ben Carson (9 percent) comprising the rest of the second tier. Nobody else has more percentage points than Trump has marriages (3).

“It has become abundantly clear that Trump is giving his supporters exactly what they want, even if what he says causes the GOP leadership and many Republican voters to cringe” Monmouth polling director Patrick Murray said.¹

But hey, maybe that Monmouth poll was just an outlier. Maybe …

ABCWashPostPoll_GOPPrimaryPreference_1215

Nope.  This morning, a fresh ABC/Washington Post poll puts Trump at 38 percent, up from 32 percent a month ago. Cruz is at 15 percent, and Rubio and a fast-fading Carson are tied at 12.

It’s just crazy. Asked which GOP candidate is most likely to win in November, 47 percent of Republicans say Trump, with Rubio and Cruz well behind. Asked who is most honest, 23 percent name Trump, compared to 24 percent who name Carson. Trump also leads when GOP voters are asked who has the best temperament to be president.

Did I mention this is crazy?²

In the ABC/WaPo poll, Trump does particularly well among white males with no college degree, although it should be pointed out that even among women and those who do have a college degree, he holds significant leads.

Among voters overall — including Democrats and independents — just 28 percent say they believe that mainstream Islam encourages violence, while 54 percent believe it is a peaceful religion. But Trump has a huge lead among those Republicans who believe Islam encourages violence, with Cruz doing well in that group as well. So I won’t be surprised to see a Muslim bashfest in tonight’s presidential debate on CNN.

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¹ Jeb Bush, by the way, continues to tank. In a Monmouth poll taken a year ago, 30 percent of Republicans had an unfavorable impression of the former First Brother. After spending millions of dollars on TV advertising and other efforrts, he has succeeded in driving his unfavorable rating within his own party up to 47 percent. (Trump’s unfavorable rating among Republicans has fallen from 55 percent in April to 29 percent today.)

In short, Bush’s campaign continues to exist for the sole purpose of spending all the money that it succeeded in raising initially.

² Trump has a similar lead here in Georgia. According to a Landmark poll released Friday, 43 percent of Georgia Republicans back the New York City developer, with Cruz second at 16 percent. Some 72 percent of Georgia Republicans say they support Trump’s proposal to ban Muslim immigrants.

Reader Comments 0

487 comments
CASmith01
CASmith01

Years ago, when hate radio was gaining popularity, I wondered, "is anyone other than me troubled by this?"   We, who knew it was just plain WRONG to rile people up with hate speech, are now faced with this monster which has gotten so big it may consume us all.  Hate speech is no longer confined to talk radio on stations no one listens to, in time slots no one else wants.  Hate speech has gone mainstream.  We should have stopped it then.    

WoodstockMike
WoodstockMike

Mike Tyson supports Trump so clearly everybody doesn't hate Trump...


"While Tyson perviously said that Trump needs to get his message more “on point,” he threw his support behind the frontrunner months ago, and said that Trump’s inflammatory comments weren’t out of the ordinary compared to bad things others say about minority groups. Tyson said that the impact of the proposed ban on Muslims would be decided by the voters, not the media.

“Anybody that was ever president of the United States offended some group of people or some groups of people were offended,” Tyson said. “You can talk about Trump, Trump can talk about those people. We’ll see who wins.”


breckenridge
breckenridge

Yes indeed, I remember the good old days fondly, back when a president could just ban anybody of a certain faith  for any reason or no reason at all. 

Like the time LBJ banned Buddhists. And then Nixon followed up by banning Hindus. Not to be outdone, Gerald Ford banned the Taoists.  That didn't get much reaction though, as not many Americans had heard of Taoism.

PaulinNH
PaulinNH

Neither photo would cause a murmur in France.

Google Carla Bruni (aka Madame Nicolas Sarkozy) sometime.

Eye wonder
Eye wonder

@StraightNoChaser

Clearly, you never took a course in Republimath. For if you did, you'd know that


Vampish white former clothing model > classy, educated, accomplished black woman

TBS
TBS

Sheets

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

 That moment you go "holy [expletive], can that be even close to right?" when reading what you think is going to be a dry piece on the drug war in Vox.


http://www.vox.com/2015/12/15/10172324/drug-war-end


Mexico is not fighting the drug war just for itself. Drug use isn't particularly high in the country: National drug surveys show about 1.5 percent of Mexicans ages 12 to 65 in 2011 used illicit drugs in the previous year, compared with about 22.5 percent ofall Americans 12 and older in the previous month in 2011. (The age and timespan differences are due to differing methodologies in national surveys, but they nonetheless show that way more Americans use drugs than Mexicans.)

WoodstockMike
WoodstockMike

What liberals don't get is how quickly things can change.  Trump can't help himself when he opens his big mouth but banning Muslims from the Middle East could easily happen.  Just like today in Los Angeles, terrorist threat to kill children going to school so all schools are closed, if something like that happened there would quite possibly be a ban.  Keep in mind Jimmy Carter, a Democrat icon, banned Muslims during his presidency.

TBS
TBS

Is that you td?

AtlantanITP
AtlantanITP

So he banned Persians... Are you saying it was based on race??

KUTGF
KUTGF

@WoodstockMike Jimmy Carter DID NOT ban "Muslims".  Carter restricted Iranian visas.... based on a country NOT a religion. How foolish is your swallowing of such RW stupidity.

KUTGF
KUTGF

@barkingfrog @TomMiddleton @WoodstockMike Yes the constitution does APPLY to foreigners.  A foreigner arrested in this country for a traffic offense is entitled to constitutional due process, non-discrimination, freedom of speech and more.  However some rights of citizenship under the constitution may not apply. 

breckenridge
breckenridge

Dec 15 - Religious Right leaders are intent on being the ones to pick the Republican presidential nominee this time around and they’re throwing their collective weight behind Ted Cruz.

 

The movement’s leaders have been seething for eight years now that they were forced to rally behind Republican presidential candidates they weren’t excited about — John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.  After years of angling to prevent that from happening in 2016, “several dozen” Religious Right leaders met in secret in early December and voted to rally around Ted Cruz. 

Cruz openly promotes the efforts of Christian-nation zealot David Lane to “take back” the country by using pastor-candidates to mobilize high evangelical turnout. Cruz told American Family Association’s Tim Wildmon this summer, “Nothing is more important in the next 18 months than that the body of Christ rise up and that Christians stand up, that pastors stand up and lead.”

Jesus is coming back at some point during the next 18 months? I wonder if Vegas has odds on that?  Or can I just play the don't pass line?

WoodstockMike
WoodstockMike

@breckenridge I love when libs poke fun at religious people but on the other hand have a deep respect for Muslims, who quite possibly are the most religious people on Earth??  

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@breckenridge

Nothing is more important in the next 18 months than that the body of Christ rise up

Well a communion wafer is the body of Christ, so it's really not that big a deal.

PaulinNH
PaulinNH

I am willing to take bets on Jesus coming back in the next 18 months. I will even give odds.

Tell me how much you want to bet - send me the money - and if Jesus returns by 7/1/17 I will pay off all bets in full

PaulinNH
PaulinNH

Barking Frog

Miracles, 4 horsemen, etc.

barkingfrog
barkingfrog

@PaulinNH


Too subjective, I was hoping for 

nail scars and thorn scars and

lash marks.

gotalife
gotalife

The gop are plotting to rob trump and cruz from the nomination.


cnn works for the establishment and will help out in this debate.

St Simons he-ne-ha
St Simons he-ne-ha

True. If Jeb(!) doesn't take off soon, they're bringing in Romney

Kamchak
Kamchak

@RaindroidWillBoy 

 Jeez how many more columns are going to be dedicated to Trump?

1. Go to blogspot.com.

2. Create your own blog.

3. Choose the topics that you wish to discuss.

It's not complicated, sport.

Just sayin'.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Kamchak @RaindroidWillBoy
I actually don't mind some story ideas getting tossed around here. but yeah, just complaining that Jay's covering something you're tired of hearing about, that's kind of lame.

barkingfrog
barkingfrog

If Trump gets brokered at the convention and goes

independent the Republicans are sunk.

Eye wonder
Eye wonder

@RaindroidWillBoy

I think the wigs are more a dirty sandy blond. The orange hue is just the reflection of the fake tan off his face.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex


@RaindroidWillBoy I think if he actually won the Presidency, I'd be wearing a paper bag over my head for fear someone might recognize me as an American still living in this Godforsaken place.

gotalife
gotalife

They can still settle on jeb.