2015 was the Year of Trump. 2016 won’t be … I hope

imrs

Politically speaking, 2015 will be remembered as the Year of Donald Trump.

Trump set the agenda, he dominated the headlines, and he has proved that for all their talk about freedom and liberty and constitutional government, the American people are no more immune to the appeal of a demagogue than anybody else. The illusion that a powerful man, by sheer force of will and personality, can solve all the problems left unsolved by the bickering and feuding of lesser mortals turns out to be universal.

Lest we forget, though, our system of government was designed by the Founders specifically to frustrate that instinct. It was intended to diffuse rather than concentrate power, to make decisions possible only through compromise. And if you perceive compromise as failure, as do many of those most frustrated by the stalemate in Washington, then by design very little progress is possible.

The Year of Trump is drawing to a close, and good riddance. Somehow in the next few months — maybe because his supporters just won’t show up to vote — the Trump balloon will burst. I don’t know how that will happen, but I’m sure that it will.

OK, make that “pretty sure”. Because I have to admit that I’ve been wrong before. Back in the summer, I wrote that the 18 percent of the GOP electorate that Trump was then drawing represented his ceiling, and that he had no chance of becoming the GOP nominee. Today, the most recent national polls put him at 40 percent or above, and a majority of Republicans now say that he represents the party’s best chance at defeating Hillary Clinton. Clearly, he has a shot at the nomination.

But not at the presidency. He has no chance at the White House, I’m sure of that much.

OK, make that pretty sure. I confess that my faith in the common sense and basic decency of the American people has been rattled a bit, and maybe that’s a good thing. Maybe it’s good to be reminded that democratic processes and respect for others are not the natural order of things but in fact have to be defended and cultivated, particularly in times of stress. Many on the right, appalled both by Trump and those who have rallied to him, have begun to make that argument as well, and that’s heartening.

So who will dominate 2016?

If I had to bet today, I’d bet on Ted Cruz as the eventual GOP nominee. Like Trump, he has the born salesman’s instinct for discerning what the customers want to hear and then shamelessly giving it to them. But unlike Trump, who runs his campaign by the seat of his $800 pair of pants, Cruz is a professional politician who has craftily gamed out the process. If it seems as though everything has begun to click into place for Cruz, it’s not just because he has been lucky. It’s because he has prepared for it. The word that distinguishes him from Trump is “discipline.”

Overall, I’d give Cruz a 40 percent chance of standing at the convention podium in Cleveland come July, with Trump and Marco Rubio each at 25 percent. And barring a calamity, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. In the general election, I’d give Hillary a 95 percent chance against Trump, 85 percent against Cruz and 70 percent against Rubio.

But as I think I mentioned, I’ve been wrong before.

Reader Comments 0

1993 comments
St Simons he-ne-ha
St Simons he-ne-ha

Vanilla Isis has until 5pm to surrender.

Or America drops in

ask bin Laden what happens after that

oh wait.....you cant

ohh all this macho double naught spy talk is hot

much better than all this clinton b00ty envy

Peachs
Peachs

Trump runs his business like a blackmailer, he will get the banks so far into the debt side and then hold their feet to the fire till he gets exactly what he wants from a project really never tearing the market up with genius just making such a mess you have to bail him out or , the bank, get the publicity of making the mess yourself.  He is now laying that skill on the Republican Party, it is like a greenmailer threatening a hostile takeover. 

straker
straker

When Trump first announced, I, like almost everyone else, did not give him any chance at all.

Now, the primaries will start and we'll see if his poll numbers can translate into votes.

If many, if not most, of his followers are like the clueless cons who post here, he might actually have a chance to win the nomination.

After all, they don't call it The Dumbing Down of America for nothing.

Its been a pleasure.


Yours.

Peachs
Peachs

@straker He really took inventory of the Republican Party after the Dixiecrats had invaded it, and saw their is no balance any more, they are a party of drop outs and the party hierarchy has been enjoy this private party for their own use and not correcting this weakness in the membership.  

foo2u
foo2u

Looks like at least one of our adorable conned has a firm two-handed grip on the Clenis... and refuses to let go...

Derp...

ptcrunner
ptcrunner

Fighting, throwing insults and criticizing is easy; compromise is challenging yet necessary for the betterment of society. 

breckenridge
breckenridge

Bundy's group broke off from a Saturday protest march Saturday, then occupied the refuge's headquarters. They have claimed they don't want any violence but say they are prepared to defend themselves against any attempt to remove them from the property.

If federal, state, and/or local officials are unable to resolve this conflict peacefully by 5 PM eastern time on Monday........then they need to bring in the Home Guard. 

gotalife
gotalife

You are going to have to do better than clenis and emails to beat her.



td1234
td1234

@CherokeeCounty She needs to answer the question as to why she was an enabler to Bill's sexual abuse of women. 

CherokeeCounty
CherokeeCounty

@td1234 @CherokeeCounty

Like I've told you - that's not a winning issue for you.  Just another in a VERY long line of issues that you've tried to float to take her down.  Hasn't worked before and it won't work now.


But you keep obsessing on it.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@td1234 @CherokeeCounty

She needs to answer the question as to why she was an enabler to Bill's sexual abuse of women. 

Please make that case to the American public. Over and over again. I think it's a winner.

CherokeeCounty
CherokeeCounty

@Jackie_36

I agree, but Obama plays the long game.


The tp crowd will whine and scream, and lie and cheat, and do what they can, then Obama will win.  Health care, immigration, Iran, Cuba, climate change - the Republicans deliberately chose not to work with him, so he went around them.


And oh how they hate it - when he does what we elected him to do.

gotalife
gotalife

You have a case of the sadz.


Cheer up.


It is a great year so far.




Philo_Farnsworth
Philo_Farnsworth

Why don't my posts get any 'likes' around here?

Makes me sad...

Kamchak
Kamchak

¿Quién es más macho?

Tucker Carlson or Honey Boo-Boo?

Si, Honey Boo-Boo es más macho.

Kamchak
Kamchak

¿Quién es más macho?

Tucker Carlson or Dora the Explorer?

Si, Dora the Explorer es mas macho.

Kamchak
Kamchak

¿Quién es más macho?

Tucker Carlson or Rainbow Brite?

Si, Rainbow Brite es mas macho.

td1234
td1234

Even CNN says ISIS recruiting video of Bill Clinton and Obama. LMAO. 


"The conservative website RedState linked to what it said is an ISIS recruiting video that uses Bill Clinton, President Barack Obama and other prominent leaders, including Sen. John McCain. But Trump is not in that video.

There is no evidence that Trump appears in any of the terror group's recruiting videos, according to CNN's Reality Check Team.

Trump asked Clinton Monday to apologize for her comment during the Democratic debate on Saturday night, but she her campaign refused, saying, "Hell no." Trump repeated his demand for an apology on Tuesday, but added that he doubted one would be forthcoming from Clinton.

RELATED: Hillary Clinton camp to Donald Trump: 'Hell no' on apology

The two front-runners have increasingly been turning their attention away from their opponents in their respective primaries and toward each other, foreshadowing a possible general election showdown.

Trump knocked Clinton with a vulgar Yiddish-ism for a man's penis during a rally in Michigan on Monday night, saying she got "schlonged" in 2008 when she lost to Obama. Trump was not asked Tuesday morning about his choice of words.

On Tuesday, the Clinton campaign's director of communications Jennifer Palmieri tweeted, "We are not responding to Trump but everyone who understands the humiliation this degrading language inflicts on all women should. #imwithher"

Kamchak
Kamchak

Tucker Carlson's anger banging teddy bears type the truth?

BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Kamchak
Kamchak

The Daily Caller as proof?

Worse than breitbart.

Just guffawin'.

td1234
td1234

@Kamchak And yet they speak the truth instead of the propaganda lies spread by the LSM.

td1234
td1234

Well it appears SNC and Fedup are wrong yet again;


"Hillary Clinton’s claim during Saturday’s debate that ISIS is using videos of Donald Trump as a recruitment tool has already been proved false. But it’s now emerged that one of the terrorist group’s most recent recruitment commercials features an image of someone very close to her, personally and politically.

A four-minute video released by ISIS last month, entitled “No Respite,” includes an image of Bill Clinton, who is called a “fornicator” — a reference to his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, among many others.

The propaganda piece also shows President Obama and former President George W. Bush, who is called a “liar.” The terror group asserts in the high-quality short that the U.S. military, though large in number, is ineffectual against Muslim armies.

Clinton’s appearance in the video is especially ironic given his wife’s shocking claim during the weekend debate that ISIS recruiters “are going to people showing videos of Donald Trump insulting Islam and Muslims in order to recruit more radical jihadists.”



Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/12/21/donald-trump-isnt-in-any-isis-recruitment-videos-but-bill-clinton-is-video/#ixzz3wEocBXKY

Kamchak
Kamchak

Josh Duggar gave his sisters the "christian work ethic."

Just sayin'.

St Simons he-ne-ha
St Simons he-ne-ha

Those conservative Oregon 'militia'-men are 'willing to be martyred for' their cause.

And when they die, they get 72 cousins in the afterlife

Philo_Farnsworth
Philo_Farnsworth

I always thought their unis were funny looking.

And who would want to be called The Ducks?

breckenridge
breckenridge

There is no war on women.  There is, however, a war being waged on women's rights. The right to choose an abortion, the right to have birth control covered by their health insurance, and so forth.

breckenridge
breckenridge

These analyses compare adolescents of the same age to each other (say, 12th graders in the 1970s vs. the 2010s). Thus, Millennials are not less religious just because they are young: They are less religious than Boomers and GenX’ers were at the same age. Millennials are the least religious generation in the last 6 decades. If we assume that Americans in the 1950s and earlier were just as religious as those in the 1970s, Millennials are the least religious generation in American history.


Yet the GOP keeps catering to the religious right stupids.  They have dodo bird syndrome.


td1234
td1234

@breckenridge Maybe it is because they do not vote or even care about politics. LOL

breckenridge
breckenridge

@td1234 @breckenridge 

Or maybe it's because the religious right are stupid loser butt-darts.

But either way, the religious right is neither religious nor right.