Trump’s ploy to boycott the debate works out perfectly for him

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“I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” Donald Trump bragged over the weekend. If he believes that — and hell, why wouldn’t he? — then his decision to pick a fight with Fox News and boycott the last debate before the Iowa caucuses wasn’t much of a risk.

In fact, with the debate now behind us, I’d say the decision to boycott has worked out just perfectly for Trump. Let’s enter the Trump brain and try to think through, step by step, what may have led him to that decision:

Step One: “I gotta win Iowa. I win Iowa, it’s over. I run the table. Look at all the polls for the states after Iowa. Beautiful polls, by the way. Smart people. I’m up 19 points in New Hampshire, 16 points in South Carolina, 15 points in Nevada. So I win Iowa, all those numbers jump higher and suddenly everyone wants to be my friend. Who can stop me then? Nobody. So I gotta win Iowa.”

Step Two: “OK, so who can beat me in Iowa? They say Ted Cruz, they say he can win. But such a loser, this one. He’s been hiding in my shadow for months now, like a scared little boy. I say something brilliant, he says ‘Me too!’, and his numbers go up. A real leader, right? Pretends to be my friend, with that smug little face. Not nice.”

Step Three: “So … I duck this Fox debate, what happens. Maybe I lose some votes; maybe I don’t. Who cares? But Ted — with me not there, Ted can’t hide in my shadow. Because I do have a very big, very impressive shadow, I must say. My shadow passes, they think it’s a solar eclipse. Really, they do, I promise you. If I’m not at the debate, you know what happens? They all turn on Ted. The media, the other candidates, that Fox bimbo. They all hate him anyway. Everybody does. Let’s see if Mr. Harvard Law, Mr. Debate Champion, let’s see how he does being the big guy with the target on his back all night long. I bet they make him squirm. Make him sweat. Squirm and sweat and backtrack and whine, not a good look. That’ll be great. If I lose a few votes, but Ted loses more, fine, I win Iowa. Gotta win Iowa.”

Now, I don’t know if Trump actually sat down and gamed it all through like that. He likes to give the impression that such choices are driven by anger and affronted pride rather than shrewd calculation, and maybe they really are.  But the fact is that his decision to boycott the debate last night left his top challenger, Cruz, exposed to incoming fire, and Cruz didn’t handle it well. As a result Trump today is in a better position to win Iowa than if he had attended the debate.

Dumb luck? Maybe. But it sure is interesting to see these supposed seat-of-the-pants decisions keep turning out in Trump’s favor.

 

Reader Comments 0

1723 comments
YouLibs
YouLibs

High-speed chase sheets.

rimsky
rimsky

Koch Brothers' Network Considering Anti-Trump Campaign////////

Fox could not take down Trump what makes the Koch et al will succeed.

Peachs
Peachs

@rimsky there will be a time in the future when people will say men of low means to no means ran this government, then one day the rich guys said why have straw men do our work when they know we are them, lets just be them and be kings of our own kingdom. 

Peachs
Peachs

@ByteMe @rimsky amazing, I got a choke load of Christian Right propaganda ,that was behind Rubio, this weekend, it is like these people thought they could contain this to the kitchen and now the house is gone and here comes the firetrucks. 

_GodlessHeathen_
_GodlessHeathen_

"A bunch of pig and corn farmers will sit around tonight and decide which members of the stupid party have made the most outrageous and asinine promises , shuffle their chairs and announce who won the door prize."


In that case, Bernie wins.

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

@_GodlessHeathen_

Hillary claims Bernie is over promising but she's not.

Her proposals have teeth and Bernie doesn't.

schnirt

Kamchak
Kamchak

@JohnnyReb 

orderly immigration

Ronaldo Reaganendez' 1986 amnesty says, "What?"

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

Iowa caucuses: Donald Trump's moment of truth?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/01/politics/iowa-caucuses-2016-highlights/

His moments of "truth" are fluctuating and fleeting.

One thing's for certain, if he carries the evangelical vote it just goes to show evangelicals aren't as rigid as our liberals would have everyone believe. They're supporting DT for reasons other than his religious commitments. 

BuckeyeGa
BuckeyeGa

@Figmo2,

That goes for conservatives as well.

Peachs
Peachs

New York Times this morning" Fears that encrypted communication will prevent agencies from tracking terrorists are overstated, according to a study that included current and former intelligence officials."  

ByteMe
ByteMe

 The four occupiers who remain at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon say that they can no longer make calls or access the Internet.

Three of the remaining militiamen cannot make or receive calls, while David Fry, the group'sself-appointed tech guru, can still receive incoming calls, according to Oregon Public Broadcasting. The occupiers told Oregon Public Broadcasting that they are not sure whether power to the refuge has been cut off since they have been using a generator.

At this point, I don't understand why they aren't just taking off their clothes and running through the woods naked for all anyone cares.

Peachs
Peachs

@ByteMe I was like having to remember who they were when I first started reading what you copied.  

lvg
lvg

@Peachs @ByteMe Feds have no right to cut off anyon'e access to the internet or online porn- pure tyranny 

JeffreyEav
JeffreyEav

It's as simple as ABC. Anybody but Cruz.

rimsky
rimsky

We American conservatives have for years been confronted by an atmosphere polluted by the values of the left. ////////

As moderate:

We American "moderates" have for years been confronted by an atmosphere polluted by the values of the "right". 

Works both ways.

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

@rimsky yes, and this election will show which way is favored by the majority.

That won't be a polling majority, or one declared by the courts.

It will be a voter majority.

lvg
lvg

@JohnnyReb @rimsky A bunch of pig and corn farmers will sit around tonight and decide which members of the stupid party have made the most outrageous and asinine promises , shuffle their chairs and announce who won the door prize. 

ByteMe
ByteMe

@JohnnyReb And here I thought the last two Presidential elections showed which direction was favored by the majority.  Maybe one of us missed that.

Peachs
Peachs

@rimsky I always had a hard time with liquid sales being banned on Sunday.  It is funny how all this nonsense disappears as society grows up and in that we see the problem with being conservative. 

Peachs
Peachs

@lvg @JohnnyReb @ByteMe there you go another man who thinks this great nation slipped and let a "Black ghost from Kenya take over the WH with being truly elected"  no wonder you people hide under your beds, if I was that crazy I would be scared someone was going to shoot me too. 

ByteMe
ByteMe

@JohnnyReb Your ilk believes lots of weird things.  The rest of us shouldn't have to be subjected to those beliefs.  Freedom of Religion!!!

Peachs
Peachs

@ByteMe @JohnnyReb this really is what is killing religion, who wants to go to church and be bullied for two hours every Sunday, I get enough of that at home from my wife. 

lvg
lvg

@JohnnyReb @ByteMe The Black ghost from Kenya who took over the white house without being truly elected ???

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

We American conservatives have for years been confronted by an atmosphere polluted by the values of the left. Apparently it has made some of us excitable. Those who take strength from the America that exists beyond the Manhattan-Washington corridor long for limited government, a balanced budget, economies in government, the rule of law, traditional American values, orderly immigration, and an end to political correctness. We have become impatient with the oppression of political correctness and its absurd pretensions. We do not see anything wrong with making America great again. We know that “leading from behind” is an impossibility, plausible only to a fantasist who uses the power of the state to chloroform its citizenry. - R. Emmett Tyrell, Jr

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

@Donnie_Pinko @JohnnyReb me and about three fourths of the population see the country headed in the wrong direction.  To be great, we have to go in the correct direction and it ain't Left.

Nick_Danger
Nick_Danger

@JohnnyReb 

How do you define this "political correctness" that has you in such a tizzy?

ByteMe
ByteMe

@JohnnyReb I recommend getting a gas mask.


We citizens of the USA have been confronted for years by an atmosphere polluted by corporate greediness aided by a few powerful Republicans and their billionaire benefactors.

ByteMe
ByteMe

@JohnnyReb Saying we're going in the "wrong direction" is not the same as saying "we all want to go in the same direction".  Just because you want less political correctness doesn't mean that the rest of us care about what you want.

Peachs
Peachs

@JohnnyReb The Republicans lose sight of who butters their bread.  You are not rich to the most part but have sold out cheap to the rich thinking your cheap appetite for hatred, your low bar for fear can be feed by these people, who once elected forget who you are and your life shows it.  

Nick_Danger
Nick_Danger

@JohnnyReb @Nick_Danger 

I ask because, often, when people use the term "political correctness," it appears that they are just angry at the speech of others. 

How you intend to get people to stop using their Constitutional right to free speech, I have no idea.

Donnie_Pinko
Donnie_Pinko

@JohnnyReb @Donnie_Pinko 

and it ain't Left  / 

Which is why a self-proclaimed socialist is drawing huge crowds, dwarfing the enthusiasm for any other candidate this season.

Peachs
Peachs

@Donnie_Pinko @JohnnyReb Sanders is a rebel just like the ones who left the nation and caused a million deaths, same thing, one wanted slavery, the other socialism, lots of emotions, one is for the middle and poor, the slavery thing is for the rich. 

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

@Nick_Danger @JohnnyReb PC is a lot more than just speech.

An example would be profiling at airport checkin.

A logical and proven method of identifying threats.

Peachs
Peachs

@Donnie_Pinko @Peachs @JohnnyReb you ask why Sanders gets the large crowds being a socialist and i am saying we have wonders for years why rednecks draw to rich guys they have nothing in common with more less follow them in a revolution against their own country with nothing to gain, a bigger question to your question. 

Peachs
Peachs

@rimsky @JohnnyReb @Nick_Danger Hollywood is bush league to Wall Street and big banks, but you never hear anyone boycotting them, they really don't know how. 

Donnie_Pinko
Donnie_Pinko

@JohnnyReb 

We do not see anything wrong with making America great again. / 

So you're saying America is not now great? 

ByteMe
ByteMe

@Donnie_Pinko There's the cognitive dissonance... "we're the greatest best country in the world" except then they argue the other side as a reason they should win an election.

Nick_Danger
Nick_Danger

@rimsky @JohnnyReb @Donnie_Pinko 

It's quite possible that 75% of people polled might say that we're on the wrong track. 

It's like those polls about the PPACA - some say it goes too far, but a large percentage say it doesn't go far enough.  All those responses get tossed into the same bucket.