My best guess? Cruz, not Trump, will be the nominee

ted-cruz-donald-trump

Things could change, and I admit that this is based more on instinct than on hard data:

My best guess at this point is that Donald Trump has peaked, that he will fail to win the requisite majority of GOP delegates prior to the Cleveland convention, that Trump will nonetheless attempt to bully his way to the nomination but that GOP professionals at the convention will outmanuever the amateur, making Ted Cruz the party’s 2016 nominee.

Again, that’s mainly gut instinct, based on a sense that Trump’s antics have begun to be more tiresome than refreshing over time, and that the polls showing Trump losing by increasing margins to Hillary Clinton are beginning to penetrate the once impregnable Dome of Denial that surrounds the GOP base. People are willing to overlook a lot if it allows them to associate themselves with a winner, but once that aura fades ….

Reader Comments 0

1453 comments
Lisa Foust
Lisa Foust

Bookman, why hasn't the mainstream media picked up the Cruz mistresses story?

Mel Dundon
Mel Dundon

AJC is a liberal paper trying to sway your votes.

St Simons he-ne-ha
St Simons he-ne-ha

Let's just close this with, if you look down at the last page or two of Republi-speak, you can immediately tell why no majority of voters is evah, evah going to give national Executive Responsibiliteh to a Republican, evah again.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

GH, you realize the public's been been punked on that Emory story, right?


Sad thing is the truth doesn't matter. The false narrative has already achieved the desired result.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

CLAIM: Students at Emory University were offered "emergency counseling" after pro-Trump graffiti appeared overnight in campus "safe spaces."


WHAT'S TRUE: Students at Emory University gathered in protest after pro-Trump graffiti appeared overnight; administrators investigated the graffiti as it appeared outside designated areas for chalk markings.

WHAT'S FALSE: "Emergency counseling" was offered to or demanded by students; Emory students complained that their "safe spaces" had been violated; students were afraid of or traumatized by the chalk markings.


...in case ya missed it. I'm now extra glad I never bothered to even read the dopey clickbait I'd seen last week and get sucked into arguing over this nonsense.


http://www.snopes.com/emory-students-trump-graffiti/

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

 Paul Horner?  Man he had a sweet swing.  He'd just slap the ball out of old Fulton County Stadium.


What?  That was BOB Horner?


Favorite Bob Horner story. He was unable to play one day due a few too many adult beverages the night before.


Skip Caray announced that Horner was not playing that day because of a bad case of the Budweiser Flu.

foo2u
foo2u

Paul Horner has to get to work... Braves stadiums ain't gonna build themselves, chairman Lee needs those tax dollars from Paul Horner to give to large corporations...

honested
honested

Is today the day that shady vetoes the "Religious Freak Fee-Fees Protection Act" and the "Open Season on College Students Act"?

_GodlessHeathen_
_GodlessHeathen_

@honested Is today the day that Emory Students leave their safe zones and face the threat of TRUMP 2016 in chalk?

foo2u
foo2u

You take things too far heathen... Too far I say...

Peachs
Peachs

@_GodlessHeathen_ @honested I may vote for Trump and give you what you so badly want. My bet is religion will be treated like Mexicans before four years are up..

St Simons he-ne-ha
St Simons he-ne-ha

@Visual_Cortex @_GodlessHeathen_ @honested of course they do. They have a) fake outrage, b) Trump is the face of their party, and c) Jerry Springer clips left. 

They'll prolly go with fake outrage, unless a new round of dck jokes come out during the family hour. 

kayaker71
kayaker71

No matter who wins the GOP nomination, the prime goal of this election is to keep the Beast and her intern chasing husband out of the WH.  Many seem to forget Slick Willy's lies, especially those told in court.  He is the only President in recent memory to be impeached and loose his law license as well.  Hillary is no better.  Seen she and Bill's speaking engagement fees lately?  They average close to $250,000 a pop.  Bill made close to 26M in the last two years on the circuit  and the Beast made close to 21M. Harry Truman would not accept money for speeches..... said it cheapened the office of the Presidency.  Oh, where are you Harry when we need you?

kayaker71
kayaker71

@Visual_Cortex @kayaker71 Probably the greatest president to ever serve.  More integrity than most anyone else who has ever sat in the Oval Office. 

kayaker71
kayaker71

@Menace @kayaker71 Nope, have not forgotten that one either.  Still think, no matter who does it, that is it wrong.  Harry was right.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@kayaker71

where are you Harry when we need you?

If he were around, you'd call him a Socialist Peacenik.

Menace
Menace

@kayaker71  I guess you conveniently forget RR's PAID speaking tour after leaving the Presidency. 

honested
honested

@Menace @kayaker71 

And the ray-gun-nazis shushed anyone who complained back when he was selling out to the highest bidder.

Menace
Menace

@kayaker71 @Menace  I agree with you there.  Just want to make sure you know that both sides engage in it.

Peachs
Peachs

@kayaker71 This is a 21st century Republican, not for anything, no principles, just against everything, and no plan to fix it.  


What happen to the family values, the left doesn't have that hanging on their necks, you do, you need to answer for why you are running a moral freak like Trump, yet you can't quiet get to that subject, you want to talk trash when you are living in a trailer park!!

foo2u
foo2u

Wealth envy...

Peachs
Peachs

@Menace @kayaker71 the only person not getting them is Sanders, and that scares hell out of the Republicans, what they call socialism. 

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Peachs @kayaker71 @Visual_Cortex

Apparently (I only heard this, haven't verified it) he only learned about Nagasaki after the fact, and was like "Oh, we're nuking that one as well? I thought we were just doing the one."

Hey, for a little fun? Imagine our right wingers who claim to love them some HT, dealing with Truman firing McArthur. I'm sure they'd have the President's back there... right?

Peachs
Peachs

@foo2u if I didn't have children to raise, now grandchildren, I could understand voting for him, but he is a nasty character, who could start a trend. Why do we have to lose our virginity to be great?

honested
honested

@kayaker71 

That's President Clinton to you little feller.

Stand in front of a mirror and practice saying it.....prez-i-dent....clin-ton.

A few dozen times might help kick back part of your rampant CDS.

foo2u
foo2u

Actually, the Donald plans to fix a lot. I like a lot of the things he proposes... Fix the infrastructure, work on bringing manufacturing back, etc...

I just can't be part of his Little Wolfpack.

_GodlessHeathen_
_GodlessHeathen_

Paul Horner?  Man he had a sweet swing.  He'd just slap the ball out of old Fulton County Stadium.


What?  That was BOB Horner?


Nevermind.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

The wisdom of Classilib, down below:

 God had especially harsh words to say about homosexuality

Well there ya have it.

foo2u
foo2u

And shellfish...

honested
honested

@foo2u 

Seems like there was a bit of discussion over adultery, gluttony, greed and avarice.

What happened to that?

foo2u
foo2u

A wingnut's gotta have priorities...

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@honested @Visual_Cortex @foo2u 

It won't hurt if you just trust what I say.

Like I know Jesus said lots and lots of stuff about looking after the Poors and treating them with respect. 

But He did say in passing "the poor you will have with you always, but I gotta leave soon, so listen, guys..." that one time.

So the Poors probably aren't really all that important.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@CherokeeCounty @Visual_Cortex

 there are five, maybe six verses about homosexuality

Honestly, I was a little surprised to see that out of Classilib. I didn't really think he'd default to the "God said the gay sex was bad!" view.

Empirical evidence would suggest those chapters were written by mere men, not God. There are all kinds of fancy book-learning seminarians and theologists and whatnot who actually believe that to be the case and preach it from their pulpits, even!

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@honested @foo2u

works like this:

Everything in the OT is to be taken literally, unless there's something in the NT that can be interpreted to leave the door open on something in the OT.

And, I decide what stuff in the NT actually matters.

CherokeeCounty
CherokeeCounty

@Visual_Cortex

I missed that - I tire pretty quickly of arguing with people.


But if we're going to base our laws on the Bible, there are five, maybe six verses about homosexuality, compared with over 20,000 about how we collectively treat poor folks.



Peachs
Peachs

@CherokeeCounty @Visual_Cortex not to mention marriage and adultery, and things a majority of us can participate in.  Homosexuality is about the only sin, I was born immune to...

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Peachs @CherokeeCounty @Visual_Cortex

Homosexuality is about the only sin, I was born immune to...

Funny how that works, huh? Let's us hetero guys get super-fussy about the one thing we'd never do anyway--get gay-hitched to another guy!