Hillary up 13 points over Trump in Georgia?

(AP)

(AP)

A new poll conducted by Lake Research Partners, a Washington-based Democratic consulting group, reports that Hillary Clinton holds a 13-point margin over Donald Trump here in Georgia, and a seven-point margin over Ted Cruz.¹

Source: Lake Research Partners

Source: Lake Research Partners

According to the pollsters, such numbers “show the promising nature of Georgia as the next emerging swing state in the South, following North Carolina and Virginia,” but they warn that “resources — including both time and money — will be needed to see these positive figures come to fruition for Georgia to be a swing state in 2016 and beyond.”

I am not buying it, not for a minute.

Sure, Trump and Cruz are both badly flawed general-election candidates, and at the national level Republicans are in trouble in the fall regardless of which man tops their ticket. The Lake poll reports that 64 percent of Georgia voters look at Trump unfavorably, with 50 percent looking unfavorably upon Cruz, to which I say maybe. In this kind of political environment, and depending on how the next seven months go, it is possible that red states such as Georgia can be brought into play by the Democrats. In 2012, Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by eight points in Georgia, and if the GOP campaign is a total trainwreck, eight points are not insurmountable.

But with all that said, the numbers in this poll still do not seem credible.

Among other warning signs, the poll reports that Barack Obama has a 56 percent approval rating in Georgia, with just 41 percent of Georgians viewing him unfavorably. While national polls do show a significant uptick in approval for Obama, none put him as high as the 56 percent reported here. And the number is frankly implausible in Georgia.

The poll also reports that Hillary Clinton has a 49 percent approval rating in Georgia, with 48 percent viewing her unfavorably. That’s not great, but again, it’s significantly higher than the numbers being reported nationally. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Clinton has a 40 percent approval rating and a 54 percent disapproval rating nationally. There is no reason to believe that she’s doing significantly better in Georgia than she’s doing nationally.

Any Democratic strategists who base their approach to the campaign on numbers like these are falling for fool’s gold.

———-

¹The poll of 400 likely voters has a margin of error of +-4.9 percent. It was conducted March 31-April 3.

 

Reader Comments 0

252 comments
McGarnagle
McGarnagle

Polls are very much meaningless. They are usually used to validate someones argument. (hear any of Trump speeches) 


Unfortunately a lot of news is based on polls.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

Atlanta Constitution publisher, editor, and columnist Ralph McGill was not content simply to analyze Georgians and the South.  Through his vision and commitment to a more progressive and egalitarian South for the 20th century, especially regarding racism in Georgia, McGill's voice greatly helped to change the social trajectory of the South for the future.


In this century, I hope that AJC progressive columnist Jay Bookman will not be content simply to analyze Georgians and the South in terms of their lingering sexism, as well as their lingering racism, but that his voice will become even more persuasive and credible in helping all Georgians to rise to their potential for believing in the inherent equality of both men and women, as well as that of blacks, whites, and minorities of all kinds, as we travel together into the 21st century.  

EliasDenny
EliasDenny

After spending my military time in the strategic air command in the 50's and early 60's I have to say that the world today, even with trouble spots, is much better. I also agree with Jay that this poll does not make sense even if it sounds great. 

Kamchak
Kamchak

another crash is widely anticipated.

Another victory for me at the Grand Prix de Monaco is widely anticipated.

Donnie_Pinko
Donnie_Pinko

MR_B  

You seem like a pretty intelligent guy, but, man, are you ever complacent.

In case you hadn't noticed, we are 8 years into a global financial slump following a financial crisis, the fundamentals of which have yet to be resolved.  Nothing has been done to address the root causes of the 2008 crash and another crash is widely anticipated.

Global tensions between the world's military powers are at a high point. (That Syria conflict that has already seen dangerous flareups between major nuclear powers, that's not resolved by a long shot.) We are arguably as close to a major nuclear crisis as at any time since the nuclear scare of the 1960s. 

But what makes these issues a crisis is that there is no sign anywhere on the horizon of a resolution to them. They appear guaranteed to get worse before they get better. 

LordHelpUs
LordHelpUs

@Donnie_Pinko "Global tensions between the powers are at a high point. "  Relative to what other period in history?

Nick_Danger
Nick_Danger

@Donnie_Pinko "are you ever complacent." 

Hadn't actually noticed.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.  Takes all kinds.

honested
honested

@Donnie_Pinko 

I guess you are right.

I will keep 1,000 rounds of ammo under the front seat and 100 cans of soup in the trunk......

Jeez, do you do outside on a sunny day and listen for distant thunder?

LordHelpUs
LordHelpUs

@Donnie_Pinko "In case you hadn't noticed, we are 8 years into a global financial slump following a financial crisis, the fundamentals of which have yet to be resolved" - BS

stefpe
stefpe

@Donnie_Pinko "Nothing has been done to address the root causes of the 2008 crash"
Unfortunately, shooting Wall Street bankers seems to be frowned upon for some reason.

DaltonbywayofBickley
DaltonbywayofBickley

The corpse of Mao would win in Georgia as long as he had an R by his name and someone pinned an "It's Obama's fault," sign to his shirt.

gotalife
gotalife

wolf is still crying Sanders comments about his Israel.

Donnie_Pinko
Donnie_Pinko

 Told ya she is crushing it. 

---

This silly cheealeading again. 

Sigh.

gotalife
gotalife

The debate last night was a excellent warm up for the trump debates.

TBS
TBS

I missed it. But on the other hand I've also missed all but five minutes of the debates so far this year.

We get to the general I might watch more for the entertainment value of it all

gotalife
gotalife

Told ya she is crushing it.

honested
honested

@gotalife 

I do find the wrong-wings hysteria over each and every detail that might provide them with the faintest glimmer of hope suddenly becomes a great victory for Senator Sanders and by some absurd extension a faint chance for whoever floats to the top of the wrong-wing bowl to become President.


Donnie_Pinko
Donnie_Pinko

td

I do not agree with a single thing that Bernie believes in but he made Hillary feel the Bern last night and wiped the floor with her.

--

I don't entirely agree. There were certainly some opportunities to really go for a knockout punch that Sanders left on the table last night, to the point that the question is raised of a very concerted effort at restraint on his part, even to the point of tying one hand behind his back. 


TBS
TBS

How are you defining knockout?

In that it will turn the tide of the upcoming states or just that most people will see that he won the debate?

Donnie_Pinko
Donnie_Pinko

@TBS 

No, I mean knockout just in terms of the debate itself. Which might not have had a measurable impact on the results of the remaining primaries, but could on the other hand have further wounded her and compromised her going forward.

TBS
TBS

Got ya

I thought that was probably the case but figured I'd ask

With that said I think NY might be closer than some are predicting

rimsky
rimsky

And when he was asked if he worried about alienating fans in Louisiana, where, for many, guns are a way of life, he said: “I don’t care.”////

That is from Sean Payton of the Saints.  I wonder how many of our politicians can talk like that.

td1234
td1234

@rimsky Sounds like a person that wants to be fired from his job. 

TBS
TBS

They could fire him then pay out his contract

And he will be back as a head coach in the NFL in no time

So whether he wants to be fired or not means very little in the grand scheme of things

stefpe
stefpe

@td1234 @rimsky Sean Payton is arguably the best coach the Saints ever had and he coached the team to the only championship the Saints ever won. He also signed a 5 year contract extension only 3 weeks ago.

I think it's safe to say he'll be ok for at least another couple of years...

Donnie_Pinko
Donnie_Pinko

So, nothing wrong with the topic chosen for this post per se, but if you noticed, there was a pretty heated debate between Democratic candidates just last night during which some pretty interesting issues were raised and statements were made.

Do I detect a hint of boredom in Jay Bookman or lack of interest in the issues being raised over the course of this interesting contest?
Just something that struck me.

Donnie_Pinko
Donnie_Pinko

@honested @Donnie_Pinko 

Legitimate issues .. attended to ... by the most qualified woman ever to run for president .... 

Not sure I see a solid connection between those points. 

Qualification for the office of president, if such a thing exists at all, is extremely hard to quantify and in an establishment politician such as Hillary Clinton with a long and very dubious record, even more questionable. She might indeed be one of the most qualified candidates ever on paper, but during a time of crisis such as this and with great upheaval in the air, I'm not sure that such a track record is very reassuring, to put it mildly.

Donnie_Pinko
Donnie_Pinko

@honested @Donnie_Pinko 

Yet, she will make a wonderful President for 8 years beginning in January. 

--

Incantations of how great a president Hillary Clinton is going to be, while comforting to converts like you, are less persuasive to people like myself who see in her nothing but a continuation of a corrupt status quo.

honested
honested

@Donnie_Pinko 

Legitimate issues, all easily attended by the most qualified woman ever to run for President beginning next January.

honested
honested

@Donnie_Pinko @honested 

Yet, she will make a wonderful President for 8 years beginning in January.

By the way, the 'crisis' ended in 2011. Expectation that the world will recover to a level as before the ray-gun years is folly.

Mr_B
Mr_B

@Donnie_Pinko @honested The attempt at the dissolution of the Union was a crisis.


The emergence of global Fascism in the 1930s was a crisis.


The recovery from the Great Depression at the same time was a crisis.


The enfranchisement of an entire race of people in the 60's was a crisis.


What we've got now is a mild inconvenience.

TBS
TBS

Most qualified?

That's like saying DT is worth 10B so no doubt he will make a great POTUS

But to be honest I'm not sure what most qualified means. Almost every time someone states this they use their own cherry picked info as evidence

Certain skill sets, exp, education might all be contributors that could assist in being POTUS but most qualified is a stretch and difficult to quantify

td1234
td1234

@Donnie_Pinko Or it could be that you will not see a blog that has the possibility of making Hillary look bad. 


I do not agree with a single thing that Bernie believes in but he made Hillary feel the Bern last night and wiped the floor with her. 

JeffreyEav
JeffreyEav

Maybe Bernie is hesitant to release his taxes because he gave donations to fringe left wing causes. No one would be surprised and I don't think it would hurt him primary wise. But I do wonder about the hold up.

Trump just doesn't want people to know he's not as rich as he says he is.

ByteMe
ByteMe

@JeffreyEav Better that you not know about all the dividends from Exxon in his IRA.

JeffreyEav
JeffreyEav

Yeah but he gives all the money to gay, immigrant, spotted owls.