The #NeverTrump argument gets more precarious

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Beyond the sheer math of delegate counts, the core of the #NeverTrump argument among conservatives is that Donald Trump has peaked, that his delegate lead is the result of his early performance in a crowded field and that as things have gotten more serious, his candidacy has lost its momentum.

I’ve made that same kind of argument myself, predicting that Trump will fall short of a delegate majority and that Ted Cruz, with a better organization and better convention strategy, will come away from Cleveland with the nomination. But Fox News just released its latest national polling, and it shows Trump with a new high of 45 percent of GOP voters.

Here’s what the trend line looks like, going back to March 2015:

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Fifteen percent was once supposed to be Trump’s ceiling, then 20, then 30 or 35 percent. Now he’s at 45 and still trending up. Ted Cruz trails Trump by 18 percentage points, according to Fox, and John Kasich trails by 20. And you can’t beat something with nothing. So even if Trump does end up short of the magical 1,237 delegates, it’s hard to look at data like this and honestly argue that Trump has peaked or that Republican voters have finally come down with a serious case of buyers’ remorse that justifies denying him the nomination.

Should they? Sure.

Have they? No. Quite the contrary, it appears.

Reader Comments 0

660 comments
McGarnagle
McGarnagle

Just give Trump the nomination and get this side show over with already.

_GodlessHeathen_
_GodlessHeathen_

So what's the death toll from that aircraft - "drone" collision in London?


Zero.  Whaaaat?

KUTGF
KUTGF

@_GodlessHeathen_ So you are complaining because they avoid catastrophe?  What is the point of your post? 

Peachs
Peachs

If we found an alternative for oil today, how important would the Middle East be, would we even be over there?  


For that matter how important would Texas be?  And even steak is now found to be killing us. 

ByteMe
ByteMe

@Peachs The nukes over there would be important... the people, not so much.

skydog12
skydog12

@Peachs


I had a killer fillet last night. I had biscuits made with lard to counteract the beef. 

You got to balance out.

KUTGF
KUTGF

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said Sunday that he hopes a contested GOP convention in July "doesn't involve violence," The Washington Post reports.

"I hope it doesn't involve violence. I hope it doesn't. I'm not suggesting that," Trump told reporters in Staten Island. "I hope it doesn't involve violence, and I don't think it will. But I will say this, it's a rigged system, it's a crooked system. It's 100 percent corrupt."
_______________
Nice business you have here.  Sure hope that you don't have a fire if you don't buy  my insurance. 

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

@KUTGF you're implying there would not be the possibility for violence if not for Trump.

If it was Cruz in the lead the protesting would be the same.

Trump has been accused of promoting violence, yet when he states he hopes there won't be he is also found at fault.


Peachs
Peachs

@KUTGF Bill Maher had a routine where he was advising people not to poop on Donald Trump's Hollywood star and gave out the exact address last week, but begged people not to poop on it.  Wonder how that worked out?

OldEngineer
OldEngineer

@FIGMO2 Thousands of years later, and another day in the Middle East. 

Peachs
Peachs

@OldEngineer @FIGMO2 another conservative group ,that has reached rock bottom ,and won't even try to rise above it. 

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

@FIGMO2 I completely agree with the wondering as I lost count of how many times he was in the news and I asked myself why doesn't Bush take him out.

PaulinNH
PaulinNH

@FIGMO2  Why he was left intact?  Maybe because he (and his Mahdi army) were key Shia players after the invasion of Iraq and they allied with the US to lessen the violence.

Eye wonder
Eye wonder

@FIGMO2

You do a lot of wonderin', fIGS. You're almost like Wonder Woman. Almost.

Peachs
Peachs

What makes a community great? Wealth? Education? Freedom? 


I would love to hear a debate from the presidential candidates of their vision of America, not the list of bad things the other guy is doing, but what they think makes America great.  Freedom is not letting children play in traffic, education is not watering down reality, wealth is not self made, work around those truths and you will have a shot at happiness.  

Peachs
Peachs

@St Simons he-ne-ha @Peachs totally right. In NY they say the subways force uppity people to commute with common people and there becomes an understanding.  In single unit cars you don't have that mixing of classes. 

JohnnyReb
JohnnyReb

@Peachs It's a beautiful Spring morning in Atlanta, Peachs, how's the weather in that alternative universe?

There are those born with the silver spoon or trust fund babies, but for the most part if a person becomes wealthy they work for it.

So yes, wealth is self made.

Even for those born into wealth, they have to learn how to keep it.

So if you long to be wealthy or even improve your standing any at all, forget this blog and go to work.

Peachs
Peachs

@Visual_Cortex the church, like a army preacher, should stay out of politics. There is no way to win by associating mankind to God,  you dirty perfection and confuse yourself as God. 

Peachs
Peachs

@FIGMO2 @Peachs @Visual_Cortex one thing I like about Catholics, they are free thinkers, the pope says no birth control, yet 70% of the Catholic women admit to taking birth control.  Probably the same in the Baptist, they just lie about it. 

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

@Peachs @FIGMO2 @Visual_Cortex

Didn't answer my question but that's okay.

Baptists lie about it? I've known plenty of Baptists who speak freely about their use of contraceptives. They see it as responsible stewardship.

Peachs
Peachs

@FIGMO2 @Peachs @Visual_Cortex Baptist are code for Republican in this part of the country, not so much with Catholics.  And look what the Republicans drag in!  Where do they get their ideas for gays or Sunday sales, and then it turns out drunks and gays are voting against what they claim they don't do! It is call a joke in other parts of the country, but fighting words down here. 

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

@Peachs @FIGMO2 @Visual_Cortex

Still didn't answer the question regarding The Pope. He's been real popular with jay's liberals of late.

Answers to questions are not a requirement with me. 

You DO get an "A" for avoidance.

Peachs
Peachs

I remember when my children went into their teenage years, everything was boring.  Thank God they grew out of that stage and became responsible adults.  Apparently the Republican Party has not advanced ,beyond the boring stage. 

Peachs
Peachs

@ByteMe @Peachs I was thinking this morning, the suburbs are turning into the new crime areas of our communities.  Seems ,where the Republicans have strong holds, there is a belt tightening, that causes depletion of property values, which causes crime. It didn't start that way, like Cobb County, the right has been clearly in charge, but it is ending up that way, and the intercity, Atlanta, value of property is going up, crime is dropping. 

OldEngineer
OldEngineer

@Peachs @ByteMe Once upon a time, folks like our friends in Peachtree Corners, desiring to be the bastions of conservatism, formed their own city. The main sentiment we observed was so "those people" would just leave them alone and go away. They went from three forms of government (county, state, federal) to six (the preceding plus individual HOA's, a "Super" HOA and the new City), taxes went up, crime went up, but wow - everybody's lawns look really cool!

Peachs
Peachs

@OldEngineer @Peachs @ByteMe my point exactly.  Conservative pools do not last long, they seem to rot on their own austerity of government, and thought process. 

OldEngineer
OldEngineer

@Peachs @OldEngineer @ByteMe Yep. PTC has also "maybe" learned that privatizing stuff like code enforcement may not be such a great idea after all. The plus for Unincorporated Gwinnett is that they are footing the bill for some of the overlap with us.

Peachs
Peachs

@OldEngineer @Peachs @ByteMe it is fine for conservatives to get into your lawn or bed rooms, but rant about the big government trying to feed or give healthcare to HELP somebody..

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@Donnie_Pinko

wait, what? Did this Preznit Dilma do something high-crime-and-misdemeanorish like have an affair with a consenting adult?