Trump-enomics would cost millions of jobs, trillions in debt

Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul Donald Trump, speaks at the Family Leadership Summit in Ames, Iowa, Saturday, July 18, 2015. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik) ORG XMIT: IANH1

Four economists at Moody’s Analytics have conducted an in-depth study of the impact of Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies.

Their conclusion?

“Broadly, Mr. Trump’s economic proposals will result in a more isolated U.S. economy. Cross-border trade and immigration will be significantly diminished, and with less trade and immigration, foreign direct investment will also be reduced. While globalization has created winners and losers in the U.S. economy in recent decades, it contributes substantially to the ongoing growth of the U.S. economy. Pulling back from globalization, as Mr. Trump is proposing, will thus diminish the nation’s growth prospects.

Mr. Trump’s economic proposals will also result in larger federal government deficits and a heavier debt load. His personal andcorporate tax cuts are massive and his proposals to expand spending on veterans and the military are significant. Given his stated opposition to changing entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, this mix of much lower tax revenues and few cuts in spending can only be financed by substantially more government borrowing.

Driven largely by these factors, the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump’s economic proposals are adopted. Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office. By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today. During Mr. Trump’s presidency, the average American household’s after-inflation income will stagnate, and stock prices and real house values will decline.”

trumpeconThe Moody’s analysis directly contradicts the claims of Sen. David Perdue and others that a Trump presidency would somehow usher in an era of fiscal sanity. There is nothing in Trump’s policies, promises or debt-driven record in private industry to suggest that it would do so, and every indication that it would do the opposite. According to Moody’s, the Trump-created recession “would be an unusually lengthy recession — even longer than the Great Recession.” It also contrasts the predicted loss of 3.5 million American jobs under Trump with the predicted growth of 6 million jobs under current laws, creating a net loss of almost 10 million jobs.

Apparently, that’s what it means to “Make America Great Again.” It also demonstrates the danger of allowing resentment, anger and misplaced nationalism to masquerade as effective economic policies.

Reader Comments 0

1029 comments
Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott

It is estimated that BObama increased the National Debt from $9.5 TRILLION to soon over $20 T. Not bad for 7.5 years as a liberal dictator. I doubt that anyone could do this much damage again.

Roger Xavier Jackson
Roger Xavier Jackson

Reading the comments here has me wondering if people in usa have any clues as to how this problem started and whom to blame for it.

Calvin Davis
Calvin Davis

Roger, My friend, you are about to waist your time attempting to get a clear answer to your question

Alex Groleau
Alex Groleau

Kind of like the Iraq War? I am glad we didn't nominate a Democrat who voted for it... Wait

Jan Marynowski
Jan Marynowski

We are not sure what Trump economic plan will cost us but we know how much Obama plan cost $10 trillion.

Scott Smith
Scott Smith

We have a 19 trillion dollar debt under Obama. As the Obama administration was running it up, ruining the future of the people who are trying hard to participate in the American economy, where were the AJC journalists critical of and trying to prevent Obama's atrocious handling of the economy? Now you criticize a presidential candidate who isn't even in office? Are you surprised many hard working people think the AJC newspaper is good to be used as a literal and figurative piece of toilet paper?

Poppy Wallen
Poppy Wallen

What the hell do you think HILLARY-ECONOMICS will cost us? Get real people, vote INDEPENDENT PARTY.

Scott Inman
Scott Inman

How is that worse than Obama-economics which is the same if not better than Hillary-economics?

Summer Smith
Summer Smith

Remember people that the AJC is nothing more than the tabloid trash that you see at the grocery store check-out. Most everything published from them is far from the real truth. Keep in mind that the AJC should only viewed as entertainment. Real and Objective Journalism has been dead for a long time at this operation.

Chester Plunkett
Chester Plunkett

Democrat Algebra: 95 million unemployed divided by population of 325 million = 5% Unemployment.............

lvg
lvg

Trump's speech today is the predicted unpacking of Hillary's smelly baggage.If the odor and unfavorability ratings for Clintons keep increasing, Hillary will lose. Someone is covering up the FBI investigation of Hillary and it sure does not help her. A special prosecutor would have cleared the air.

Bill Snapp
Bill Snapp

What a joke. Thus speaketh Moody's! The same ratings agency that completely and totally missed the largest financial crash in one hundred years (see the financial Armageddon of the fall of 2008). Bookman does this a lot. He digs up some leftists talking points masquerading as data and trumpets (pardon the pun) it as fact. But the best part is the sheeps' reaction and consequent hysterical over-reaction to anyone who doesn't agree.

DaltonbywayofBickley
DaltonbywayofBickley

So, what about that whole Great Depression thing that falls into the timeline you describe?

Garrett McCoy
Garrett McCoy

So says Hillary and Obama who have cost Americans trillions of dollars and many lives already. Stop voting for hypocrites!

Steve Hilley
Steve Hilley

I'm calling BS on this! I read it and I see the chart and it is still BS! Name ONE thing that the O'bama admin has done to spur on the growth of jobs! Everything and anything that has happened has happened in spite of O'bama's greatest effort to destroy us the US from the inside out. If we can survive with an O'bama administration, we can thrive under a Trump administration that is open and friendly to business growth in the United States of America! Trump 2016!

Juliette Mons
Juliette Mons

Dangerous is the woman bought and paid for by Arabs who want to kill us.

Kamchak
Kamchak

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/latino-voter-registration-surges-amid-trumps-rise/nrjsR/

Ubaldo Gutierrez has been a United States citizen since 2004. But he never bothered to register to vote until this month.

Why now, after 12 years? The Reidsville resident doesn’t hesitate in giving his answer.

“We’ve got to get Trump out of there,” he said. “It’s kind of scary for the entire country.”

Gutierrez is part of a recent surge in Latino voter registration in Georgia, one that many attribute to Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee. Some 16,254 Latinos joined the state’s roll of active voters from October to April, an increase of nearly 20 percent, according to records maintained by the Secretary of State’s Office.

DS
DS

Trump thought about running for president in 2000. He said, "It’s very possible that I could be the first presidential candidate to run and make money on it."

Here's how that would work: other people donate money to his campaign, which then buys services from Trump businesses at fair market value. Rental properties especially, but also food, wine, apparel.

Trump has spent about $50 million on his campaign so far, but he calls that a loan. He wants that money back. 

About 10% of his campaign spending has been with Trump businesses. Campaign-as-a-business-venture.

But wealthy donors aren't contributing. They want him to forgive his loans and put in $100 million or more of his own money before they start donating.

For Trump, that wasn't part of the plan. That's why his fundraising has been so awful. And that's why his campaign expenses don't include hiring staff to get out the vote, build voter databases and other campaign stuff.

His campaign is circling the drain.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/22/us/politics/donald-trump-self-funding-payments.html

Bob Hunt
Bob Hunt

As far as being damgerous, Hillary either wouldn't or didn't want to help the men in Benghazi, how can she defend America, besides she a Pathological liar

Bob Hunt
Bob Hunt

Don't believe anything Bookman says, he's a mouthpiece for the Democrats, He's never had a thought of his own and just writes what he's told.

Kamchak
Kamchak

@_GodlessHeathen_ 

 As you know, your oft cited stat that most Dems voted against the enforcement of UN sanctions, sounds good, but it is total BS.

Number of Democrats in congress voting against invading Iraq = 147 or 57% 

Number of Democrats in congress voting for invading Iraq = 111 or 43%

As you know, these are just the facts, ma'am. Just the facts.

td1234
td1234

@Kamchak @_GodlessHeathen_ Did the votes by Democrats in the US House matter at the time since they were the minority party? Now tell us about votes in the body that the Democrats controlled? How did the Democrats vote in the US Senate? 


29 Democrat yes votes, 21 no votes or 58% voted for the resolution. 


Key members in the US Senate that voted yes were. 


Clinton

Biden

Reid

Kerry


Just the real facts without the propaganda. 

Kamchak
Kamchak

@td1234 

 without the propaganda.

No propaganda from me, I merely gave the vote by the numbers.

Just the facts, ma'am. Just the facts.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

 Lets make history and arrest this evil dumb witch. Talk about security risks! Crooked Criminal Felon Killery - Is this what you want!! -40 years of criminal behavior all the way back to Whitewater Scandal in Arkansas and Vince Foster death/murder, Actual quotes and facts from Killery

So very glad we have the contributing ShoutyFacers here, aren't you?

rimsky
rimsky

@Visual_Cortex I like to see them flopping like a fish out of water.  Kind of funny in a way.

Kenneth Shane White
Kenneth Shane White

Bookman? ... does ANYBODY take this guy seriously. I have more respect for my dog.

Wes Argabrite
Wes Argabrite

You know who is near the top of the list of people I don't trust? People that consider themselves as professional "economists".

Anthony Beron
Anthony Beron

Next thing you know his agriculture plan is going to get panned because he forgot to mention irrigation.

Na Smith
Na Smith

Paid for buy the hitlery foundation

Tony Gallina
Tony Gallina

Lets make history and arrest this evil dumb witch. Talk about security risks! Crooked Criminal Felon Killery - Is this what you want!! -40 years of criminal behavior all the way back to Whitewater Scandal in Arkansas and Vince Foster death/murder, Actual quotes and facts from Killery! OK, so I lied! Sold out Americans... Let people die…Faked a stroke so I wouldn’t have to testify… Got fired for being unethical… Covered my husband’s affair and lied for him… IT WASN’T THE FIRST TIME! WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE? AND...if that wasnt enough - EXPOSED OUR NATIONAL SECURITY SECRETS TO ALL OUR ENEMIES BY HAVING NO COMMON SENSE AT ALL AND NO JUDGMENT AND PUT TOP SECRETS ON A PERSONAL SERVER AT HOME BECAUSE SHE WAS TOO LAZY TO GO TO A SECURE FACILITY TO READ THE TOP SECRET EMAILS - AMAZING IDIOT....If you are voting for Killery just because she's a woman, you are as big a scumbag as she is. And there's so much more - for the younger voters.... here is a bit of Hillary I am betting you wont know at all. Many people who may vote in the democratic primary election and the general election in 2016 have no real knowledge of Mrs. Clinton or her accomplishments. As a public service, I thought I would provide some input regarding her triumphs for consideration. When Bill Clinton was president, he allowed Hillary to assume authority over a health care reform. Even after threats and intimidation, she couldn’t even get a vote in a democratic controlled congress. This fiasco cost the American taxpayers about $13 million in cost for studies, promotion, and other efforts. Then President Clinton gave Hillary authority over selecting a female attorney general. Her first two selections were Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood – both were forced to withdraw their names from consideration. Next she chose Janet Reno – husband Bill described her selection as “my worst mistake.” Some may not remember that Reno made the decision to gas David Koresh and the Branch Davidian religious sect in Waco, Texas resulting in dozens of deaths of women and children. Husband Bill allowed Hillary to make recommendations for the head of the Civil Rights Commission. Lani Guanier was her selection. When a little probing led to the discovered of Ms. Guanier’s radical views, her name had to be withdrawn from consideration. Apparently a slow learner, husband Bill allowed Hillary to make some more recommendations. She chose former law partners Web Hubbel for the Justice Department, Vince Foster for the White House staff, and William Kennedy for the Treasury Department. Her selections went well: Hubbel went to prison, Foster (presumably) committed suicide, and Kennedy was forced to resign. Many younger voters will have no knowledge of “Travelgate.” Hillary wanted to award unfettered travel contracts to Clinton friend Harry Thompson – and the White House Travel Office refused to comply. She managed to have them reported to the FBI and fired. This ruined their reputations, cost them their jobs, and caused a thirty-six month investigation. Only one employee, Billy Dale was charged with a crime, and that of the enormous crime of mixing personal and White House funds. A jury acquitted him of any crime in less than two hours Still not convinced of her ineptness, Hillary was allowed to recommend a close Clinton friend, Craig Livingstone, for the position of Director of White House security. When Livingstone was investigated for the improper access of about 900 FBI files of Clinton enemies (Filegate) and the widespread use of drugs by White House staff, suddenly Hillary and the president denied even knowing Livingstone, and of course, denied knowledge of drug use in the White House. Following this debacle, the FBI closed its White House Liaison Office after more than thirty years of service to seven presidents. Next, when women started coming forward with allegations of sexual harassment and rape by Bill Clinton, Hillary was put in charge of the “bimbo eruption” and scandal defense. Some of her more notable decisions in the debacle were: · She urged her husband not to settle the Paula Jones lawsuit. After the Starr investigation they settled with Ms. Jones. · She refused to release the Whitewater documents, which led to the appointment of Ken Starr as Special Prosecutor. After $80 million dollars of taxpayer money was spent, Starr’s investigation led to Monica Lewinsky, which led to Bill lying about and later admitting his affairs. · Hillary’s devious game plan resulted in Bill losing his license to practice law for lying under oath to a grand jury and then his subsequent impeachment by the House of Representatives. · Hillary avoided indictment for perjury and obstruction of justice during the Starr investigation by repeating, “I do not recall,” “I have no recollection,” and “I don’t know” a total of 56 times while under oath. · After leaving the White House, Hillary was forced to return an estimated $200,000 in White House furniture, china, and artwork that she had stolen. Now we are exposed to: the destruction of possibly incriminating emails while Hillary was Secretary of State and the “pay to play” schemes of the Clinton Foundation – we have no idea what shoe will fall next. But to her loyal fans – “what difference does it make?” And this doesn't include BENGHAZI! Where four died and it doesnt make a difference to Killery.

Atlantarama
Atlantarama

President Hillary Clinton. Just get used to it, and stop crying.

Lou Harrisn
Lou Harrisn

Hillary would be a continuation of Obama economics. 20 Trillion in debt, it does not get any worse than this. Don't be stupid and vote for Hillary, we will head straight into a deep recession.

David Henderson
David Henderson

Trump has already created more jobs than the entire obama administration has in 8 years. And he hasn't killed anyone either.

Nick_Danger
Nick_Danger

Unfortunately, the jobs Trump has created are in Asia...

Calvin Davis
Calvin Davis

If the Trump has created the jobs that you say that he has, tell me where I can find documented proof of your statement. I will wait for your reply.

David Henderson
David Henderson

If you want documented proof all you have to do is get him to show you the applications of the thousands of people he hired to work at his billion dollar industry. Now Calvin Davis you show me the documents where the Obama administration put more people to work that wasn't working when he took office. Especially since there are atleast ninety million people unemployed and over half the population on social benefits.