Opinion: The eight biggest takeaways from the CBO bombshell

(AP)

The Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office have released their assessment of the likely impact of the GOP’s Obamacare “replacement plan.” That analysis is more grim than even most of the bill’s critics expected, and it also explains why Republican officials have been so nervous about its release:

1.) The analysis found that the impact of the bill would be felt almost immediately, with 14 million more uninsured Americans in 2018, rising “to 21 million in 2020 and 24 million in 2026.” Overall, 52 million Americans would be uninsured by 2026, compared to 28 million projected under current law.

2.) President Trump and congressional Republicans have tried to paint a picture of Obamacare as a failing program in a death spiral, but according to the CBO, that assessment is false. The report says that “the non-group market would probably be stable under either current law or the legislation.”

3.) In 2018 and 2019, it predicts, “premiums for single policyholders in the nongroup market would be 15 percent to 20 percent higher” under the GOP bill. By 2026, average premiums would be 10 percent lower than under current law, but that would vary greatly by age. “By 2026, premiums would be 20 percent to 25 percent lower for a 21-year-old … but 20 to 25 percent higher for a 64-year-old.”

4.) Over the next decade, the GOP legislation would lower government revenue by $883 billion, mostly in the form of tax cuts for the rich. That lower revenue would be offset by an almost identical cut of $880 billion in spending on Medicaid, which provides health care to the poor. In other words, the bill produces an almost perfect dollar-for-dollar shift away from the poor and into the bank accounts of the wealthy.

5.) The GOP has emphasized the problem of high deductibles in their overall critique of Obamacare, but according to the CBO, deductibles under the GOP plan “would be higher than those anticipated under current law … significantly increasing out-of-pocket costs” for health-care consumers. That is not by accident. Significantly increasing out-of-pocket costs has been a central pillar of GOP planning for years now, even though they rarely mention it to voters.

6.)The GOP has also stressed the importance of price competition in bringing down costs, but according to the CBO, “under the legislation, plans would be harder to compare, making shopping for a plan on the basis of price more difficult.”

7.) According to the CBO, “fewer employers would offer health insurance” under the GOP plan “because the legislation would change their incentives to do so.” The number of Americans who get health coverage through their employer would drop by 2 million by 2020 and by 7 million in 2026.

8.) Finally, barring Planned Parenthood from participating in Medicaid’s family-planning and contraception programs would hurt low-income recipients. Overall, that reduced access to family planning assistance means “births in the Medicaid program would increase by several thousand” annually, the CBO projects.

Personally, I think that’s a pretty damning assessment overall, but others claim to have had a very different reaction.

“If you read the entire report, I am pretty encouraged by it – it exceeded my expectations,” House Speaker Paul Ryan said this evening in response to the CBO analysis. If he’s being honest, that pretty much confirms my thesis from earlier in the day, when I argued that the GOP goal has never really been to replace Obamacare, but instead to use repeal to drive as many lower-income Americans as possible off of insurance and deeper into economic and health insecurity.

And since 24 million additional uninsured is more than 15 million, the previous worst-case estimate, Ryan says he’s pleased. I’m not sure that a lot of his fellow Americans will share in that pleasure.

 

Reader Comments 0

948 comments
Kathy
Kathy

We should cancel the insurance policies for Senators and offer them 'access' to the same health care  they are planning for us. Promise the public anything until they are elected. Then, they write Regs and policies that benefits themselves and their friends. Nothing new about these snake old salesmen.  Why is it  that the riches country in the world can't manage to provide decent health care for the public when most of the major countries have it?



basketball32
basketball32

Jay,


What you want is a single payer system  with unlimited access to care for everyone , which is absolutely unaffordable, even if you tax your so-called rich at 75%.


What you will have is a VA system for most people with long lines, doctors that don't give a damn,  and "death panels". Your so-called rich people will have their own system with top-notch care and immediate access.  And the people in the "VA  system"  will be protesting  they can't have the "rich people" system.    Just as everyone can't afford a Lexus and a Mercedes in their garage, everyone (and the nation) can't afford luxury health care, or even the health insurance that Obamacare mandates. 


People are screaming about health insurance when the nation is suffering an obesity epidemic.  Health insurance and doctors can't perform miracles for people who won't take responsibility for their health. 


The obesity epidemic may save Social Security.  People won't be living long enough to draw much out.

0.285704692476
0.285704692476

@basketball32 actually we want a medicare for all.  which works pretty well.  but we would be happy with obamacare which works pretty well too.  though a few fixes particularly improving the technology in the internet interface etc.  obamacare does a pretty good job of incenting people to be healthier.  the system that the gop put together will do the opposite and increase the burden of the sick on all of us. 


DerekGator
DerekGator

@0.285704692476 @basketball32 To say that Obamacare works pretty well is a ridiculous statement.  I do not think that the current bill being discussed solves any problems but if Obamacare was working well, there would be no need for the Republicans to change anything. 

pageluma
pageluma

as Walter responded I'm startled that a stay at home mom can get paid $6185 in four weeks on the internet . view it now +++++++++++++

........>>>>jobline4.com|||||||

jezel
jezel

Can the laws of supply and demand bring down the cost of health care ?

Mr Peabody
Mr Peabody

Making healthcare unaffordable for all seniors other than the wealthy is how the GOP plans to resolve Social Security shortfalls, by killing off the elderly.

ChandlerL
ChandlerL

Ah lets just pass the bill to see what's in it.   Now where have I heard that one before?

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

House Republicans are evil people who should die in a fire SHEETZ.


Kamchak
Kamchak

@McGarnagle

Mourinho painted a target on Eden Hazard's back. The ref warned the captain the next player who fouled him would be carded. Too bad Herrera already had a yellow card. 

RantNRave
RantNRave

 "Some people don't yet get it.  Under Trump or Ryan care the premiums are sky rocketing.  For most people at the bottom end of the economy has to make a choice between food and board versus premium."


@Rimsky


Ryan needs to keep trying !


It's obvious that he did not know


how COMPLICATED it would be !


He's an idiot.


Obama OUTSMARTED the cons


AGAIN.


heeheeheeheeheeheeheehee

RantNRave
RantNRave

 "Let me fix this up for you Jay:  CBO = Fake...Trump will make sure insurance is available for all There ya go. Easy. "


@DeepStateDog


Let me fix this up for you Dog:


GOP Health Care Plan = FAKE !


The Chump* threw you cons under the bus;


especially, the ELDERLY.


That includes your mother, your father,


your grandmother and your grandfather.


If you are okay with that....you are a bigger


Chump than The Chump* !


K

rimsky
rimsky

Some people don't yet get it.  Under Trump or Ryan care the premiums are sky rocketing.  For most people at the bottom end of the economy has to make a choice between food and board versus premium.

Of course people will choose F and B.

Atleast under Obamacare the rich people are paying for the subsidy.

DownInAlbany
DownInAlbany

For most people at the bottom end of the economy has to make a choice between food and board versus premium. And, those folks will be covered by Medicaid.

DownInAlbany
DownInAlbany

@rimsky  Under Trump or Ryan care the premiums are sky rocketing. Which makes them no different from Obamacare.  Period.

td1234
td1234

@rimsky The premiums and deductibles sky rocketed under Obama. Just last year premiums went up 106% in AZ.  

skydog12
skydog12

@DownInAlbany @rimsky


That`s the con DIA.


Keep the people divided while the health care administrators/drug mfg`rs make a killing.

skydog12
skydog12

@td1234 @rimsky


The premiums and deductibles have been sky rocketing for 40 years due to advancements in medical technology and insurance companies greed.

Most politicians are doing nothing to improve the system because they are getting money from the system.

DerekGator
DerekGator

@rimsky The bottom 20% of the population do not spend one second ever thinking about insurance, they go to the emergency room when they are sick or hurt and don't pay the bill.  They are either on Medicaid or just don't care that they don't have insurance.  You should see the Medicaid mothers that give birth at Grady screaming if they don't get all of their free stuff.  The problem with this country is that the bottom 20% is not capable of taking care of themselves and no matter how much we give them, it will not change anything. 

Resist Trump
Resist Trump

@DownInAlbany

Except that there will be less $$ for Medicaid, too.  Throwing the sick and elderly under the bus is the Republican Way.

rimsky
rimsky

@DownInAlbany Can 't wait for the outcome.  What ever DIA don't hold your breath for anything good coming out of it.

td1234
td1234

The CBO report is making the assumption that without Medicaid or subsidies that 14 million people will not have insurance. 


There is nothing in the report that the insurance will be accessible and it will be the choice of those 14 million to either purchase or not to purchase the insurance.  

td1234
td1234

@Hedley_Lammar Why can you not make sense of it? Do you have a reading comprehension problem? 


It is pretty simple. The CBO claims that 14 million will lose their insurance because the government is not paying for it when in reality the insurance will be available and those 14 million will have access to insurance. It will be their choice rather to purchase it or not. 


The insurance companies will not be allowed to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions and parents will still be able to cover thier children until they turn 26. 

KUTGF
KUTGF

@td1234 @Hedley_Lammar The insurance companies will not be allowed to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions and parents will still be able to cover thier [sic] children until they turn 26. 

__________

Thank you OBAMA!

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@td1234

the insurance will be accessible 

As will be leased his-and-hers Porsches, for the additional grand-or-so-per month.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@td1234 @Visual_Cortex

And it will have been your choice to screw working class Americans out of their health insurance to provide tax breaks to billionaires.


King_of_Kolob
King_of_Kolob

@td1234 It's like the unemployement numbers,fake and horrible under Obama, great under Trump....You can't make this $#!t up.

JKToole
JKToole

@td1234 @Visual_Cortex Or else:

"The Republican plan would require anyone who has a lapse in their coverage of longer than 63 days in the prior year to pay their insurer a penalty equal to 30 percent of the premium of the individual or small group health plan they are purchasing."

"Excluding people who never had insurance, 21 million adults might have been subject to the penalty,"

"And the penalties under the GOP proposal would hit older people harder than they would younger people.

"For example, a 30-year-old with a gap in coverage of longer than 63 days in the past 12 months would face a surcharge of $84 per month for the next 12 months, for a total of $1,007,"

"In contrast, a 50-year-old with a gap in coverage of the same length would be charged $96 more than a younger person per month, or $1,154 more over 12 months, for a total of $2,161."