Opinion: ‘… the wrong end of a wave election’


“I think the big lesson for Tuesday is that … Trumpism without Trump can show the way forward,” a confident Steve Bannon bragged over the weekend, referring to the Virginia governor’s race. “If that’s the case, Democrats better be very, very worried.”

It is now Wednesday, and from what I can tell, Democrats are not worried much at all. In fact, “giddy” would be the more accurate term. “Trumpism without Trump” got trounced Tuesday night, hugely, and there’s a very real sense that this is just a hint of what may yet be coming.

As Bannon suggested, Republican Ed Gillespie ran in Virginia on Trump’s agenda, with Trump’s stamp of approval, and he lost by nine points. Every Republican on the statewide ballot lost by a large margin. The landslide was so sweeping that Democrats picked up 16 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, the largest partisan gain in over 100 years in Virginia and an outcome that no Democrat had dared to even dream about before the votes were counted. Eleven of those 16 pickups were won by women candidates.

Republicans began the night with a massive 66-34 advantage in the Virginia House; they ended it in an apparent tie with Democrats, pending recounts. “I’m shocked, too,” one veteran Republican legislator told the Richmond Times-Dispatch after conceding his race. “This is what happens when you get on the wrong end of a wave election.”

Here in Georgia, Democrats easily picked up two state House seats that had long been considered safe conservative districts. In a special election in state Senate District 6, previously held by GOP gubernatorial candidate Hunter Hill, the two candidates who survived into the runoff were both Democrats.

It’s all just stunning, and in the aftermath Trump tried vainly to disassociate himself from the carnage. “Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for,” he tweeted from South Korea. “… with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!”

The exit polls tell a very different story. More than half of Virginia voters said they saw the governor’s race as in part a referendum on Trump, and by a 2-1 margin those voters rejected him. In the New Jersey governor’s race, that ratio was closer to 3-1.

“I don’t know how you get around that this wasn’t a referendum on the administration, I just don’t,” admitted U.S. Rep. Scott Taylor, R-Va., as the magnitude of the night began to sink in. “Some of the very divisive rhetoric helped prompt and usher in a really high Democratic turnout in Virginia. We need to have some looking in the mirror.”

In politics terms, that mirror comes in the form of exit polls, and the deeper you look into those polls, the more ominous they become for Republicans. Health care, not immigration, was by far the biggest issue for Virginia voters, and Democrat Ralph Northam had a 55-point advantage among voters who were motivated by that core issue. By a 15-point margin, Virginia voters said they could not trust Republican Gillespie to handle race issues competently.

Among voters 44 and younger — people who will form the electorate of the future — Northam won by an astounding 30 points. In the New Jersey governor’s race, that divide was even more profound: Among voters 44 and younger, Democrat Phil Murphy won by 36 points. That’s the kind of showing that makes it very, very difficult to rebuild a political party.

The one bright spot for Virginia Republicans was the 44-point lead for Gillespie among white male voters without a college degree. That proved three things: His pro-Trump message got heard loud and clear by its target audience; in the end, it wasn’t near enough to save him; and the sense of ownership and dominance among white male voters in this country is profoundly antiquated.

It’s going to be fascinating to watch what happens in Washington now. Republicans have been telling each other for months that the only way they can fend off disaster in the midterms is by passing what they call “tax reform,” which to me is nuts. In poll after poll, Americans of every political stripe say they oppose giving tax cuts to wealthy Americans and corporations, yet somehow doing both is going to save the Republican Party? It fails the basic test of logic.

Even before last night, Republican congressmen had been lining up to announce their retirements, and you have to think that the rush to the exits will accelerate. Seats that were once considered safe in the 2018 midterms must now be considered up for grabs, in both the House and Senate. GOP incumbents who didn’t dare to voice disagreement with Trump now have to recalculate, and Democrats who once might have been intimidated into voting with Republicans will be emboldened instead.

One year ago today, Trump pulled off one of the more amazing upsets in U.S. political history. Since then he has kept almost none of his promises, and in many cases has done the exact opposite. His polling numbers at this point in his presidency are the lowest in history. The one promise that he may end up keeping — ironically, the biggest promise of them all — is his pledge to thoroughly shake up Washington and to reshape America’s political landscape.

But it may happen in ways that neither he nor his supporters are going to like.

Reader Comments 0

1860 comments
JKToole
JKToole

Roy Moore is an attorney. That he has not immediately filed a libel lawsuit for defamation of character against the Washington Post should tell you all you need to know.


Brosephus
Brosephus

@StraightNoChaser

Damn!!!!  The WaPo ain't playing with folks anymore.  Deason's story, in particular, mentions a local spot called Mater's.  Their pizza is probably the best in town, and I always stop by whenever I go home.


http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/roy_moore_accused_of_sexual_mi.html#incart_river_home

Neither Corfman nor any of the other women sought out The Post. While reporting a story in Alabama about supporters of Moore's Senate campaign, a Post reporter heard that Moore allegedly had sought relationships with teenage girls. Over the ensuing three weeks, two Post reporters contacted and interviewed the four women. All were initially reluctant to speak publicly but chose to do so after multiple interviews, saying they thought it was important for people to know about their interactions with Moore. The women say they don't know one another.

"I have prayed over this," Corfman says, explaining why she decided to tell her story now. "All I know is that I can't sit back and let this continue, let him continue without the mask being removed."

This account is based on interviews with more than 30 people who said they knew Moore between 1977 and 1982, when he served as an assistant district attorney for Etowah County in northern Alabama, where he grew up.

....

Debbie Wesson Gibson says that she was 17 in the spring of 1981 when Moore spoke to her Etowah High School civics class about serving as the assistant district attorney. She says that when he asked her out, she asked her mother what she would say if she wanted to date a 34-year-old man. Gibson says her mother asked her who the man was, and when Gibson said "Roy Moore," her mother said, "I'd say you were the luckiest girl in the world."

Among locals in Gadsden, a town of about 47,000 back then, Moore "had this godlike, almost deity status - he was a hometown boy made good," Gibson says, "West Point and so forth."


This story doesn't read like made up shiat.  This is my hometown, and the last paragraph above is the truth.
To Moore's credit, there's only one person who claimed any sexual contact beyond kissing, BUT she was under the age of consent when he tried to get her to feel the wang.
Nobody can claim that these women came out to tarnish Moore's credibility either.  It took multiple interviews for them to talk.  That says a lot!!

Brosephus
Brosephus

@BuckeyeGa 
Yep.  I will be the first to tell you that I would have never suspected such a thing.

There have never been any kind of rumblings like that at home.  It's a small town, so word quickly gets out when people do things.

Brosephus
Brosephus

@honested 

His son has quite the record.  He was arrested again not too long ago.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/10/recent_arrest_puts_caleb_moore.html

The son of U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore was back in the headlines this week after authorities filed charges for trespassing.

It was the second time in less than a year that 27-year-old Caleb Moore turned himself into police, and one of nine arrests since 2011 for the son of the GOP senate candidate and former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court.

And yet, none of the charges have resulted in prison time. This week, Reckon by Al.com has been looking at how the criminal justice system in Alabama treats low-income defendants, and whether they get locked out of programs that provide second chances and clean criminal records.

honested
honested

@Kamchak 

Obviously!!

However, everything about that picture (and his 'career' to date reeks of skeevy perv!!).

gotalife
gotalife

I did not know the cartels were cutting cheap heroin with Chinese drugs.

Eye wonder
Eye wonder

Imagine, for a second, the spontaneous combustion that would have occurred had Barack Hussein Obama said, publicly, while visiting China, that he gives the Chinese great credit for taking advantage of the USA?  The scale might have reached "nuclear."

gotalife
gotalife

@Eye wonder He is kissing major as over there. It is a mistake to keep him in office.

Eye wonder
Eye wonder

@gotalife @Eye wonder


Probably the weakest US president ever.  All ya gotta do is wave some shiny stuff in his face, march erect soldiers before him, and he'll do whatever you command. (Extra points if on the golf course. Double extra if it bears his name.)

ByteMe
ByteMe

@Eye wonder They're claiming "just kidding" to the USA press.  After a year of this, you'd think their voters would be more pissed off, but noooooooo.....

gotalife
gotalife

Despite Trump’s Pleas, China’s Online Opioid Bazaar Is Booming

You can buy unregulated anything in China.

TetoLeo
TetoLeo

@gotalife


You can buy anything unregulated or regulated on the dark net..... so whats your point?

TetoLeo
TetoLeo

@gotalife


So your point is Trump's pleas are not working in curbing opioids in China, even though opiods come from other places too?

TetoLeo
TetoLeo

@Nick_Danger @TetoLeo @gotalife


Wasn't chastising.


I thought when I posted "so what's your point" that would have been a good indication of why i had posted.  Guess I was wrong as you still seemed confused.

ScubaSteve
ScubaSteve

Can someone tell me what is up with these gross a** dudes?


NOT sexually assaulting minors isn't hard.

NOT sexually harassing everything in a skirt at your job isn't hard.

NOT sexually assaulting anyone for that matter, is not hard.

ByteMe
ByteMe

Republicans standards really haven't shifted far in the past year to expect different.

Citizen-of-the-World
Citizen-of-the-World

@ScubaSteve It's apparently hard if your sense of entitlement and position of power aren't paying off in sexual favors as you assumed it would. 

TetoLeo
TetoLeo

@ScubaSteve


Its not just dudes.


Check out female teachers abusing boys or harassing boys.


Some folks are just sick!!

Sometimes there is not an answer as to why.

ScubaSteve
ScubaSteve

@Finn-McCool @ScubaSteve It is way deeper than that for my money. This is a person who tried to use the Alabama Supreme Court to advocate for the illegality of homosexual behavior.


WHILST (allegedly) engaging in actual illegal behavior with a minor.


ANYONE who votes for him is a true troglodyte. 

honested
honested

@ScubaSteve 

Probably, somebody knew about this long ago and neglected to make appropriate use of a cattle prod, for a couple of hours, in the rain.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

Terrible

Wendy Miller says she was 14 and working as a Santa’s helper at the Gadsden Mall when Moore first approached her, and 16 when he asked her on dates, which her mother forbade. Debbie Wesson Gibson says she was 17 when Moore spoke to her high school civics class and asked her out on the first of several dates that did not progress beyond kissing. Gloria Thacker Deason says she was an 18-year-old cheerleader when Moore began taking her on dates that included bottles of Mateus Rosé wine. The legal drinking age in Alabama was 19.

TetoLeo
TetoLeo

@StraightNoChaser


Seems if true he is a sick puppy!!!!


Not that shocking, seems many many people are sexual deviants these days.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

Disgusting. And yet white folks will still vote for this piece of shlt.

PaulinNH
PaulinNH

@StraightNoChaser  Mateus Rose?  I didn't think anyone over the age of 23 drank that crap.  I'm surprised he didn't offer them Blue Nun as well.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

Salacious family values. 😂 😂

Moore chatted with her and asked for her phone number, she says. Days later, she says, he picked her up around the corner from her house in Gadsden, drove her about 30 minutes to his home in the woods, told her how pretty she was and kissed her. On a second visit, she says, he took off her shirt and pants and removed his clothes. He touched her over her bra and underpants, she says, and guided her hand to touch him over his underwear. “I wanted it over with — I wanted out,” she remembers thinking. “Please just get this over with. Whatever this is, just get it over.” Corfman says she asked Moore to take her home, and he did.

Eye wonder
Eye wonder

@StraightNoChaser


And let's also let the group know that the accuser is a die hard Republican who voted for President F---g Moron, lest anyone accuse her of being a Dem plant.

Citizen-of-the-World
Citizen-of-the-World

@gotalife Read this one. It was complicated and I won't pretend that I understood all of it, but I did takeaway that the House bill screws the middle class and strokes the rich -- and the deficit be damned. 

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

He embraced Trump and got whooped. 😂 😂

A mayor in Ohio who left the Democratic Party last year to endorse Donald Trump for president has gone down in defeat.

Tom Coyne, who was elected as mayor Brook Park in 2013, lost his reelection bid on Tuesday night when he was defeated by independent candidate Michael Gammella.

As the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports, Coyne lost by more than five percentage points to Gammella, a former city council president and United Auto Workers representative.

Coyne made headlines in 2016 when he ditched the Democratic Party to back Trump’s candidacy. He has so far shown no remorse for his decision this year, and he even appeared at an October fundraiser in Cleveland alongside Donald Trump Jr.

ByteMe
ByteMe

Trumpites poked the sleeping bear.

ByteMe
ByteMe

Considering he's running for Senator from Alabama, preying on 14-year-olds might be considered a reason for the rednecks to vote for him.